Aaron Rodgers' injury has completely changed the complexion of the AFC East race. At the start of the 2023 NFL season, the New York Jets were given the best odds to dethrone the Buffalo Bills atop the division. With Aaron Rodgers' Achilles injury ending the quarterback's season after just four plays, any AFC East predictions that included the Jets winning the division title have to be re-evaluated.

The Jets' defense was as good as advertised in New York's Week 1 win over the Bills. The Miami Dolphins looked like Super Bowl contenders in their season-opening victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The New England Patriots are tied with the Bills for last place in the AFC East, though Bill Belichick's squad nearly upset the reigning NFC champions.

The AFC East odds have changed dramatically after Week 1. The Dolphins are now favored at FanDuel Sportsbook with +140 odds to win the division. Once the clear AFC East favorites, the Bills' odds are +145. The Jets are Super Bowl long shots, though their +550 odds suggest that New York can potentially overcome Rodgers' injury and finish in first place. The Patriots are a distant fourth with +900 odds.

What does Rodgers' injury mean for the Jets' chances of being contenders? Here are AFC East predictions for exactly how the division standings will look at the end of the 2023 regular season.

4. New York Jets

It's hard to imagine that the Jets can survive Rodgers' injury and actually make a run at the AFC East title. New York's defense and playmakers will give the team a chance to win plenty of games—just look at how the Jets beat the Bills Monday night with only 140 passing yards. But the downgrade from Rodgers to Zach Wilson is enormous, and it's one that could ultimately result in another last-place finish for Gang Green.

Wilson has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL over the last two years. The former No. 2 overall pick didn't look much better in relief of Rodgers Monday. In addition to five more challenging games against the AFC East, the Jets have to play the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. Good luck winning in Dallas and against the two teams that met in the Super Bowl with Wilson under center.

3. New England Patriots

There's a clear talent gap between the Patriots and the rest of the AFC East teams on the offensive side of the ball. Before Rodgers tore his Achilles, the Bills, Jets and Dolphins all had Pro-Bowl-caliber quarterbacks and arguably a top-five wide receiver. New England's roster doesn't check either of those boxes, and it will likely prevent the Patriots from challenging for an AFC East championship.

There are reasons to be optimistic about the Patriots' AFC East chances. New England's defense can be a top-five unit. Maybe Bill O'Brien can help Mac Jones and the offense return to where they were in 2021 when the Patriots made the playoffs. With Belichick at the helm, the Patriots have a pretty high floor, virtually guaranteeing that they aren't going to be among the league's worst teams. The lack of top-tier talent at the most important offensive positions probably limits the height of their ceiling.

2. Miami Dolphins

A Dolphins win, a Bills loss and Rodgers' injury has turned Miami into the new AFC East favorites. Miami entered the season with the third-best odds in the division. That all changed when the Dolphins looked like a juggernaut by dropping 36 points on the Chargers. Tua Tagovailoa's hot start to 2023 isn't exactly unsustainable: he led the NFL in passer rating last season. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle giving the quarterback arguably the league's best receiver duo, Miami's offense can steamroll plenty of opposing defenses.

Tagovailoa's health is still hanging over the Dolphins. It won't go away unless the quarterback can go several weeks without suffering an injury. Add in the fact that Miami gave up 34 points amid Jalen Ramsey's injury and the Dolphins are not the best bet to be the last team standing in the AFC East race.

1. Buffalo Bills

Don't give up on the Bills because they lost to Zach Wilson and the Jets in Week 1. New York gave Josh Allen trouble in both of its matchups with Buffalo a season ago. The Bills still went on to win 13 games and clinch their third straight AFC East title. Buffalo has averaged 12 wins over the last four seasons.

Buffalo remains the class of the AFC East. The Bills' defense is always above average under Sean McDermott. Despite his flaws and penchant for committing turnovers, Allen is still the best quarterback in the division. It was even the case before Rodgers got hurt. Unless the Bills struggle for a prolonged period of time, they are the safest first-place pick when making AFC East predictions.