Alabama hits the road for a clash with Big Ten foe Wisconsin in Week 3 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. It is time to continue our college football odds series with an Alabama-Wisconsin prediction and pick.
The Crimson Tide opened the season with a 63-0 win over Western Kentucky, but it wasn't pretty for three quarters in a 42-16 victory against South Florida in Week 2. Alabama led 14-13 entering the fourth quarter but turned it on with four touchdowns in the final 10 minutes of the game.
As for the Badgers, they've posted back-to-back two-touchdown wins to start the new campaign. Wisconsin defeated Western Michigan 28-14 in Week 1, then followed it up with a 27-13 win over South Dakota in Week 2.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Alabama-Wisconsin Odds
Alabama: -16.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -820
Wisconsin: +16.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +550
Over: 49.5 (-110)
Under: 49.5 (-110)
How to Watch Alabama vs. Wisconsin
Time: 12:00 PM ET/9 AM PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Alabama Could Cover The Spread/Win
Because Alabama won't beat Alabama the way it did for the majority of the game against the Bulls.
The Tide had three turnovers and 13 penalties for 120 yards. You're going to struggle against anyone with that many mistakes, and a repeat performance seems unlikely since it's a good bet that has been a focus for Kalen DeBoer and his coaching staff in practice this week.
These are also the games where backing the better offense is a fine approach. Jalen Milroe is already showcasing why he's a Heisman Trophy frontrunner, as he has racked up nine total touchdowns – five passing and four rushing – through the first two games. His playmaking ability is hard to defend, and it might be a chore for Wisconsin to contain Milroe, Jam Miller (20 CARs, 194 YDs, 2 TDs), and Justice Haynes (17 CARs, 148 YDs, 2 TDs) in the running game.
What we've seen from Wisconsin on offense thus far this season? A lot of inconsistency. If you want to compare scores, the Badgers struggled to a 28-14 win over a Western Michigan team that Ohio State just beat 56-0. Wisconsin was a 24.5-point favorite in that game, and it was an 18.5-point favorite in the South Dakota game. They didn't cover in either of them.
Wisconsin currently ranks 87th nationally in scoring offense, 88th nationally in red zone offense, and 89th nationally in passing offense and improving those numbers against the best defense it has seen this season it's exactly a recipe for success.
Both teams have had their issues in the first two weeks, but Alabama's seem to be more easily correctable entering this game.
Why Wisconsin Could Cover The Spread/Win
People are already talking about Alabama vs. Georgia – a game that isn't played until September 28.
You better believe the Alabama coaching staff isn't talking about Georgia, especially after the Tide's lackluster performance in the first 50 minutes of the South Florida game. But potential look-ahead games are always interesting, and that's even more applicable when they're on the road.
The Badgers were far from dominant in their first two wins of the season, but they're receiving votes in the Associated Press poll, were picked seventh in a tough Big Ten in the preseason, and welcome a top SEC team to their stadium with the opportunity for a season-defining win? That doesn't exactly scream 16.5-point underdogs.
If Wisconsin is going to cover the spread or win outright, it has to run the ball effectively. Chez Mellusi, who averaged 6.0 yards per carry in the first four games in 2023 before a season-ending injury, is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season. The Badgers simply need more big plays in both areas on offense, and it all starts with establishing the run so that perhaps Tyler Van Dyke (38-for-63, 406 YDs, 1 TD) and the passing game can finally hit the next gear.
Alabama is going to score points, so Wisconsin has to find a better flow on offense to make this is a game.
Final Alabama-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick
On paper, this seems like a low-scoring game for various reasons.
The Tide wasn't great on offense before its scoring outburst in the fourth quarter against South Florida, and Wisconsin's offense is clearly still a work in progress at this point in the season. Which do you trust more? That may be what decides the outcome in this matchup.
Milroe and the running back duo of Miller and Haynes should find enough yards to put points on the board for the Tide, but there's less confidence in the Badgers doing enough to match them.
For that reason, Alabama is the pick.
Final Alabama-Wisconsin Prediction & Pick: Alabama -16.5 (-105)
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