It looked as if the Seattle Mariners were finally going to snatch the American League West throne from the Houston Astros early in the 2024 campaign, but with the regular season nearly over, it is clear that both teams lived up to their reputations. The Stros officially claimed their fourth straight divisional championship on Tuesday, edging out the Mariners 4-3. They can now look ahead to the MLB Playoffs and prepare to make the entire league groan once again.
This year feels a bit different, however. In the past, there were few questions, if any, about Houston's optimal path to a World Series. As long as the club was in, it was going to cause trouble for any opponent in its way. Suggesting that the Astros should be afraid of any AL squad sounded downright foolish based on the constant accolades they collected. Theoretically, the same should be doubly true this year.
The New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles– three teams that all have better records than Houston– are all riddled with holes to a varying degree. And the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals have both been shut out of the October festivities for a decade. In a field replete with uncertainty, the surest thing of this era should be expected to prevail. Right?
Do not let history lull you into a false sense of security. The Astros are vulnerable in their own right. Former ace Justin Verlander is in danger of not making the postseason roster, star slugger Yordan Alvarez is dealing with a knee injury and closer Josh Hader is harder to trust in 2024.
It is still risky to doubt this talented and experienced ballclub, but the road taken should actually matter this go-around. One route in particular appears most favorable.
Astros await their postseason foe
Houston (86-73) is locked in as the No. 3 seed, and barring one of the most mind-boggling finishes in MLB history, it will be hosting either the Detroit Tigers or Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series on Wednesday. Logically, the battle-tested Astros should be able to handle either of those underdogs. In a best-of-three-format, though, the unknown is mighty dangerous.
What would be a misstep in an ALDS or ALCS, can quickly give way to a fatal plunge in the ALWCS. There is terrifyingly little room for error, even for a relentless bunch like Houston. When considering this heightened sense of peril, it seems clear to me that the Royals are the more favorable choice for The Astronauts.
Houston's dream Wild Card opponent is the Royals
History-making shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. significantly outshines any position player the Tigers have to offer and beloved catcher Salvador Perez is fully aware of the frenzied atmosphere that playoff baseball brings. Though, a thin supporting cast and weak bullpen obscures some of the team's positive attributes, as their late-season skid shows.
The loss of RBI machine Vinnie Pasquantino puts an unreasonable amount of pressure on Witt and Perez to carry the offense. Conversely, Houston packs plenty of depth and could survive the opening round without Alvarez. The deciding factor resides on the mound, though.
The Royals lay claim to an impressive starting rotation that is overall deeper than that of the Tigers, but none of those hurlers happen to be the overwhelming AL Cy Young favorite and possible pitching Triple Crown winner Tarik Skubal. With only one loss afforded in this opening round, the Astros are immediately at risk if they square off against the dominant left-hander.
KC's starting staff is on its own hot streak, but the effort of the individual trumps that of the collective in an abbreviated playoff showdown. Joe Espada's club can hang around and tee off on the bullpen, a luxury that Detroit will not so easily provide (second-best ERA in AL).
You also cannot ignore momentum or aura, both of which the Tigers have in spades right now. The Royals recently ended their second seven-game losing streak in the span of three weeks. One franchise is accelerating at the end of September and the other might be running out of gas.
Though, even with all those factors being accounted for, I would still fear Kansas City more in a traditional ALDS or ALCS. But a best-of-three duel might not offer enough time to distinguish Skubal and the hottest club in the MLB.
Do the Astros still have a clear edge over the Yankees?
The Astros have given New York Yankees fans nightmares and cold sweats for the last several years, and 2024 is probably no different.
Jose Altuve is still one of the most clutch hitters in the sport. The possibly departing Alex Bregman has sneakily hit 26 home runs in 144 games, his highest single-season total since 2019. Kyle Tucker is flashing elite power in 2024 (23 bombs in 76 games), even after missing a majority of the year with a shin contusion. Ace Framber Valdez is surging and closer Josh Hader is spectacular in the postseason (1.37 ERA, 33 strikeouts in 16 appearances).
Although they can conquer the Yankees again, that is not a scenario anyone should be fantasizing about. At least not earlier than necessary. The lineup imbalance that has been New York's downfall in series' past is still present, but All-Star outfielder Juan Soto lengthens it to a formidable level. The team's top guys, Aaron Judge and Soto, are due for their respective October breakthroughs. There are weaknesses in the rotation and bullpen, but they have a top-notch ace leading the way
I'm not sure the Cleveland Guardians do just yet.
An ALDS matchup vs. Guardians is the most optimal path to World Series
Tanner Bibee is on an ace trajectory after another notable campaign (3.47 ERA, 187 strikeouts), but the right-hander has the burden of headlining a starting staff in his first brush with playoff baseball. Inexperience is fodder for the seasoned Astros. If they can get through the promising Bibee, they should be able to jump on the rest of the rotation and outlast an offense that posts only a .238 batting average and .704 OPS.
The problem, of course, is that suffocating bullpen. The near-unstoppable Emmanuel Clase (0.61 ERA, 47 saves) cinches together a unit that is far and away the best in the MLB. Teams win pennants and championships on the strength of a dominant pen, but games can unravel in the early innings. Yordan Alvarez should be active by this stage of the playoffs, and if he is feeling like himself, Houston's lineup could be poised to feast on the Guardians' starters.
Keeping the outcome out of the hands of Clase and Cleveland's other imposing relievers will allow the Astros to dictate this possible ALDS. I do not anticipate a truly lopsided MLB postseason matchup on the bracket, but by walking this path, the enduring club can reach another Fall Classic. In a year that was supposed to mark the beginning of the end, Houston might pull off its most impressive feat yet.
Follow Us
Subscribe
