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The UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tasrukyan 2 Main Card is officially underway and our next betting prediction and pick will cover this ranked matchup in the Lightweight (155) Division. No. 9 Beneil Dariush of Kings MMA will take on No. 10 Renato Moicano representing Brazil. Check the UFC odds series for our Dariush-Moicano prediction and pick.
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) has gone 16-6-1 under the UFC banner since 2014. Facing the absolute best fighters in the division, Dariush was able to mount an eight-fight winning streak from 2018-2022. His last two losses have come against Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, so he's hoping to bounce back with a win and insert himself back into the title conversation. Dariush stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.
Renato Moicano (20-5-1) has gone 12-5 since joining the UFC in 2014. After a rocky start to his career, Moicano has since 7-1 over his last eight fights and has clawed his way to the top of this division. After most recently stopping Benoit Saint-Denis, he'll look to jump the rankings again with a win over an established vet. Moicano stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano Odds
Beneil Dariush: +150
Renato Moicano: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
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Why Beneil Dariush Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Arman Tsarukyan – TKO
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Beneil Dariush is returning following back-to-back finishes in the first round against two of the top three highest-ranked contenders in the division. At 35 years old, Dariush is still maintaining and high level and can contend with anyone in the top-10. However, it's clear that the peak of the division may have already passed him by in terms of ability, so he'll need to seriously prove himself once again as the underdog to earn a rematch against either of his former foes.
Beneil Dariush is still one of the best submission artists in the division, but he may be meeting his match in a grappler like Renato Moicano. Still, Dariush has shown that he has yet to lose a step with his striking and he's still able to effectively put his hands on opponents. His head movement is one of the best tools in his arsenal and he'll have to be very crafty in the way he maneuvers a dangerous opponent like Moicano.
Why Renato Moicano Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Benoit Saint-Denis – TKO (doctor stoppage)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO, 10 SUB
Renato Moicano really proved himself as a contender with the way he damaged Benoit Saint-Denis with relative ease. While his world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu remains the focus of his game, Moicano has become an increasingly devastating striker and is leaning to seriously hurt opponents with his ground-and-pound game. We've seen the short elbow shots became a huge part of his plan and they could offer success in this fight if he's able to bust Dariush open early.
Renato Moicano throws 4.4 significant strikes per minute and during a three-round fight, he's willing to push a blistering pace in order to catch his opponent sleeping. Moicano is also capable of sustain great damaged while not slowing down with his own efforts, so you have to favor him if this fight ends up becoming a war of attrition. Either way, Moicano is most dangerous late in the fight when things get chaotic and both fighters get tangled on the ground. Don't be surprised if he makes a comeback and finds a submission to win this fight.
Final Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano Prediction & Pick
This should be one of the most exciting fights of the night as both men are extremely tough and sport some of the best grappling the division has to offer. We have to give Beneil Dariush the slight edge here with his precise striking, but we've seen Renato Moicano greatly improve in that realm over his last few fights. Both men are extremely sound defensively when it comes to their jiu jitsu, so it'll take a great effort for either of them to win by submission.
Beneil Dariush should have his moments striking during this fight and it could be close on the ground than many people think. However, Dariush wasn't too convincing in his last two losses and Renato Moicano is currently riding a blistering winning streak with tons of momentum. I believe the difference in this fight will be his ability to push past adversity and become more dangerous with his submissions the deep this fight goes.
For our final prediction, we're going to roll with Renato Moicano to get the win in a hard-fought, back-and-forth fight that should be among UFC 311's best.
Final Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (-180)
