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The NFL Draft is this Thursday and it is time to look at the running backs. Last year, Breece Hall was the first running back off the board, going 36th overall in the second round. Does this year provide a first-round running back? It's time to continue our 2023 NFL Draft Odds series with a special total number of running backs taken in the first-round prediction and pick.
In the thirteen drafts from 2010 on, six times two or more running backs have been taken in the first round. It does not always include one of the running backs going high either. In 2021 it was Najee Harris and Travis Etienne going back to back at 24 and 25. Each of the other times, it has included a running back going tenth or higher. Currently, Fan Duel has odds of the top running back, Bijan Robinson favored to go to the Falcons, and in the top 12 picks on the draft.
Still, running backs have been devalued by many teams and many draft experts. There is the common notion that a quality running back can be found in later rounds. While true, that notion does not tell the full story.
Here are the 2023 NFL Draft odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2023 NFL Draft Odds: Running Backs in the First Round
Over: 1.5 (-215)
Under: 1.5 (+158)
Why There Will Be Over 1.5 Running Backs Picked in the First Round of the NFL Draft
First, this requires two teams to believe that drafting a running back in the first round is a good idea. Last year two of the top five running backs in terms of rushing yards were first-round draft picks. The other three were in the second round. Even more, many recent first-round running backs have found success early in their careers. Najaee Harris already has two one-thousand-yard seasons. 2019 first-round pick Josh Jacobs just led the NFL in rushing. Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffery are often listed among the best running backs in the game. There can be some value in taking an early running back.
Then there have to be two guys worthy of first-round picks. Bijan Robinson fits that mold. Robinson won the Doak Walker and was an All-American at Texas. He is good at finding the hole, being patient to let it open, and then bursting through. He is elusive when he gets there as well, breaking tackles and getting to the second level. Coming in at 220 pounds, he can just truck people as well. Last year he had 104 broken tackles, the most PFF has ever tracked in a season. The combination of size and speed is amazing and could cause a team to fall in love with him.
Second, there is Jahmyr Gibbs out of Alabama. There are rumors that some teams prefer Gibbs over Robinson in this draft. He is a big play threat every time he touches that ball. Gibbs ran for 926 yards last year and seven touchdowns, in an offense that features the potential number-one pick in the draft, Bryce Young. He also adds a major threat in the passing game. In his three years between Georgia Tech and Alabama, Gibbs caught 103 passes for 1,215 yards and eight touchdowns. If a team has fallen in love with his versatility, then he may get in round one.
Why There Will Be Under 1.5 Running Backs Picked in the First Round of the NFL Draft
In four of the last seven seasons, the guy to lead the NFL in rushing was not first-round pick. Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor were both second-rounders, while Kareem Hunt was a third-round pick. As noted above, three of the top five guys from last year's rushing leaders were second-round picks. Number six was also a second-rounder. Overall 16 players ran for 1,000 yards last year, and 15 were running backs. Five of the thousand-yard rushers were first-rounders, but five came in the second round, one in the third, three in the fourth, and two in the fifth.
Secondly, there has to be a second team that needs a back. It seems likely that Robison is going in the first round, but is there a second team at the end of the first that needs a running back? Picks 19-31 would be the focus based on historical drafts. At 19 Tampa Bay may be interested in a running back, but they need O-line help and defense. Maybe Baltimore or Minnesota? Baltimore seems like a good option here, but nearly every mock draft has them going wide out.
Minnesota would have to rid themselves of Dalvin Cook, which could be an option, but they also have other holes to fill. The rest of the first round are teams like Minnesota, who have an established back, and it may be a waste of a first-rounder unless they are moving on from the back. The Chiefs are the exception, but Andy Reid has shown he can find and use just about any running back.
There are also some concerns to be had about Gibbs. For all his explosiveness, he was 116th in yards after contact last year, and 60th in runs over 15 yards in college football according to PFF. He only played 53% of the snaps on offense at Alabama, and he was consistently limited on goal-line carries in his career. He also struggles in pass protection, which is not a good thing in a pas happy league.
Final Running Backs in the First Round Total Prediction and Pick:
As the league moves away from runningbacks in the first round, there is a high likelihood that only one back, or none, are taken in the first round. Beyond the two studs mentioned, there Is Zach Charbonnet, Devon Achane, and Tyjae Spears all being rated very highly among backs. A player like Spears could cause teams to wait on running back. He is also a big-time playmaker, and tough to tackle in the open field. He is also expected to be available later and may let teams wait for the running back. Robinson goes in the first round, but Gibbs does not, and the under hits.
2023 NFL Draft Total Number of Running Backs Prediction: One First-Round Running Back
2023 NFL Draft Total Number of Running Backs Pick: Under 1.5 (+158)
