The Noche UFC Prelims continue to roll as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this next fight in the Flyweight (125) Division. Brazil's Alessandro Costa returns to face the debuting Alden Coria of Texas. Check the Noche UFC odds for our Costa-Coria prediction and pick.
Alessandro Costa (14-4) is 2-2 inside the UFC since 2022. He's alternated wins and losses throughout his stint, but both his wins over Kevin Borjas and Jimmy Flick were marked by performance bonuses. He'll look to add another exciting performance here as the sizable favorite. Costa stands 5-foot-4 with a 67-inch reach.
Alden Coria (10-3) will make his UFC debut at Noche UFC following three-straight wins over at Fury FC. He's also posted a 5-2 record under the LFA banner, so he's ready to step onto this card on short notice and save this fight. Coria stands 5-foot-8 with a 67-inch reach.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC Odds: Alessandro Costa-Alden Coria Odds
Alessandro Costa: -395
Alden Coria: +310
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
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Why Alessandro Costa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kevin Borjas – TKO (punches, R2)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Alessandro Costa earned himself a performance bonus with his last knockout over Kevin Borjas, reestablishing himself within this division as a name to watch. His previously scheduled bout against Edgar Chairez fell through due to injury, so Costa will face Coria on short notice with the same goal in mind. Expect him to be extremely aggressive in establishing his striking early into this fight.
Alessandro Costa is very skilled on the ground and able to find submission attempts quickly. His physical strength plays a big role, but his speed is hard to catch up with when he's finding his rhythm. On the feet, Costa also poses a big knockout threat as seen by his last three wins.
To win this fight, Costa will have to remain diligent in countering his opponent and waiting for openings. He's shown the ability to control a fight for three rounds, so he shouldn't be deterred in trying to wrestle and notch a few takedowns in the process. Coria will also be dealing with first-fight jitters on a short notice debut, all aspect Costa can look to take advantage of.
Why Alden Coria Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) German Orpineda Ponce – TKO (R2)
- Last 5: 3-1-0-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Alden Coria will be making his promotional debut on shorter notice than usual as originally scheduled Edgar Chairez sustained a significant leg injury. Notching three wins and a ‘No Contest' in his last four Fury FC fights, he's seemingly ready for the UFC stage as he managed to finish all three wins inside the distance. Still, he'll have to be in his best form yet in facing a settled UFC opponent like Alessandro Costa.
Alden Coria is a technical kickboxer and spends a ton of time reading his opponents' movements in hope of countering them. During his most recent appearance, he spent the first round breaking down the opponent and countering with flurries when the openings came. He also managed to completely dominate his opponent in the grappling, a skill that will serve him well during this upcoming matchup.
While he comes in as the underdog, Coria will have to be a bit more active to open the fight. Costa is expected to pressure forward and back Coria up, so it would be to Coria's benefit if he can earn the respect early with his own forward movement and striking.
Final Alessandro Costa-Alden Coria Prediction & Pick
While this fight was slated to feature Edgar Chairez originally, Alden Coria makes for a great replacement as he's finally able to cash-in on a UFC opportunity. While he'll be outmatched by the experience and aggressive style of Alessandro Costa, he can certainly make noise as the betting underdog if he's able to counter Costa's striking effectively.
However, given the counter-punching style of Alden Coria, he often lends himself to slow starts and inactivity during extended periods of time. For Costa, this is a tailor-made style as he can close the distance in a hurry and land fast combinations in the process.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with the more experienced fighter in Costa as he was preparing for a much more dangerous opponent the first time around. I expect him to start fast and keep his foot on the gas, landing his own offense and absorbing most of what comes back to him from Coria. We'll take the over in a drawn-out fight.
Final Alessandro Costa-Alden Coria Prediction & Pick: Alessandro Costa (-395); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-115)
