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Arsenal takes their dominant aggregate lead into the second leg against PSV. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with an Arsenal-PSV prediction and pick.
Arsenal was dominant in the first leg of their round of 16 fixture. They started strong and did not let off. Jurrien Timber would score in the 18th minute to take the 1-0 lead for Arsenal. Ethan Mwaneri and Mikel Merino both would add goals in the first half, as Arsenal scored three times in 13 minutes. PSV would get a goal back on a converted penalty by Noa Lang, but would still be down 3-1 at the half. In the second half, Arsenal would pour it on. Martin Oedegaard scored twice, as Arsenal scored four goals in the second half, winning the game 7-1.
Here are the Arsenal-PSV Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Arsenal-PSV Odds
Arsenal: -250
PSV: +650
Draw: +380
Over 2.5 goals: -132
Under 2.5 goals: +108
How to Watch Arsenal vs. PSV
Time: 4:00 PM ET/ 1:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Arsenal Will Win
Arsenal is scoring well overall. In 43 fixtures this year, they have scored 87 goals, good for 2.02 goals per game. Further, they have scored in 34 of 43 fixtures this year. Arsenal has continued to score well in UCL play. They have scored in seven of nine fixtures, and scored 23 total goals in the process. That's good for 2.56 goals per game in UCL play. They have also scored in all four home games so far, scoring nine goals in the process. That is good for 2.25 goals per game.
Arsenal is led by Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz. Saka has scored four goals with two assists in UCL play. In Premier League play, he has five goals and ten assists this year. Havertz has scored four times on an expected 2.6 goals in UCL play. In the Premier League, he has nine goals and three assists. Finally, Gabriel Martinelli has six goals and three assists in Premier League play but has just one goal and one assist in UCL play so far.
The Arsenal defense has been dominant overall. They have allowed just 36 goals across their 43 fixtures this year, good for just 0.84 goals per game. Further, they have allowed just four goals in nine games in UCL play with five clean sheets. Arsenal has been perfect on defense in UCL play. They have yet to allow a goal at home in UCL play, having four clean sheets in four games.
Why PSV Will Win
PSV has scored well overall this year. They have scored in 38 of 40 total fixtures this year, and have scored 109 goals in the process. That is good for 2.73 goals per game overall. In Champions League play, they have been solid as well. PSV has scored in ten of 11 fixtures in UCL play, scoring 20 total goals. That is good for 1.82 goals per game in UCL play. They have also scored in four of five road fixtures, scoring six goals in the process.
Luuk de Jong leads the way for PSV. He has two goals this year in UCL play, while he has 11 goals and five assists in domestic league play. Meanwhile, Ricardo Pepi has been solid overall. He has 11 goals and two assists in Eredivisie play. Pepi has two goals and an assist so far in UCL play. Malik Tillman has also been great in UCL play. Tillman has three goals and two assists in UCL play. He has seven goals and an assist in domestic league play. Finally, Ryan Flamingo and Ismael Saibari both have three goals so far in UCL play.
The PSV defense has allowed 57 goals in their 40 total fixtures this year, which is good for 1.43 goals against per game. Still, in UCL play they have allowed 22 goals in 11 fixtures, good for two goals per game. Seven of those did come last time out against Arsenal. On the road, they have allowed nine goals in five games.
Final Arsenal-PSV Prediction & Pick
This game will be hard to predict due to the massive lead that Arsenal currently has. They have a six goal lead on aggregate, which will most likely be insurmountable. This leads to the question of who will be playing for each side. It is possible that both teams choose to sit their stars, or Arsenal could sit but PSV play their primary players. Still, with how Arsenal dominated the first game, the best play is going to be on the total. Arsenal should still be able to score twice, so if PSV can find one goal, the over will cover in this one.
Final Arsenal-PSV Prediction & Pick: Over 2.5 (-132)
