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Aryna Sabalenka faces Anastasia Potapova at the Italian Open tennis tournament. Our tennis odds series has our Sabalenka Potapova prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sabalenka Potapova.
This is Aryna Sabalenka's big spring, the most important spring of her young and growing career. Sabalenka has never won the French Open, but with Iga Swiatek — the World No. 4 on the WTA Tour — struggling more than she normally does on this surface, Sabalenka has a real opportunity to break through at Roland Garros and claim her first clay-court major championship. Sabalenka has won the Australian and U.S. Opens. Now comes the next step on the road to ultimate tennis greatness: winning the French Open in springtime and elevating her credentials on red clay.
Sabalenka just won the Madrid Open championship. Now she moves to Rome to see if she can stack the Italian Open on top of her triumph in Spain. Could she complete the Madrid-Rome-Paris trifecta? That would add to her trophy case. More importantly, it would add to the ranking-points lead she has developed over Swiatek, No. 2 Jessica Pegula, and World No. 3 Coco Gauff, whom she defeated in the Madrid final. Sabalenka has a chance to create a lot of added distance between herself and her foremost competitors for the No. 1 ranking on tour. This truly is the biggest spring of Sabalenka's career to date.
Here are the Aryna Sabalenka-Anastasia Potapova Italian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Italian Open Odds: Sabalenka-Potapova Odds
Game Spread:
Sabalenka -5.5: -128
Potapova +5.5: -104
Moneyline:
Sabalenka -800
Potapova +520
To Win First Set:
Sabalenka -500
Potapova +320
Total Games In Match:
Over 19.5: -106
Under 19.5: -134
Total Games Won:
Sabalenka over 12.5: +120
Sabalenka under 12.5: -154
Potapova over 7.5: +100
Potapova under 7.5: -138
How to Watch Italian Open
Time: 5:10 a.m. ET/2:10 a.m. PT
TV: Tennis Channel
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is the world's best female tennis player. The fact that she won Madrid doesn't make her the best WTA player on clay, but Iga Swiatek's recent struggles make it less clear who will win the French Open later this spring. Sabalenka has a chance to really dominate the WTA Tour. Her competitive quality makes it hard to bet against her in Rome, even though she just won Madrid. Sabalenka has become such a reliable, clutch tennis player that it's smart to expect her to continue to win, often by large margins. Anastasia Potapova is not imposing enough to get Sabalenka off her game and make her uniquely uncomfortable.
Why Anastasia Potapova Will Win
The case for Potapova covering the spread is simple: Sabalenka just won Madrid and played a lot of tennis. There is natural emotional letdown in a first match after winning a tournament. Sabalenka probably won't play at her very best. She won't play with maximum intensity, instead choosing to manage her energy and just do enough to win. This does not look like a match in which Sabalenka will run away and hide. Sabalenka should definitely win, but it won't be a total breeze. There's a reason Sabalenka is just -800 to win instead of something like -1200 or -2000. She is not expected by the markets to be dominant and at the height of her powers in this match.
Final Sabalenka-Potapova Prediction & Pick
The lean is to Potapova, but it's very uncomfortable to bet against an in-form version of the World No. 1 female tennis player. Maybe wait for a live play, or just pass altogether on this one.
Final Sabalenka-Potapova Prediction & Pick: Potapova +5.5
