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PFL World Tournament: Continues on the prelims with a fight between Brent Primus and Vinicius Cenci in the lightweight division. Check out our PFL odds series for our Primus-Cenci prediction and pick.
Brent Primus (15-4) rebounded from a tough Bellator run with a strong PFL season, submitting Bruno Miranda and Solomon Renfro before dominating Clay Collard by unanimous decision to reach the 2024 PFL final. Though he fell to Gadzhi Rabadanov via third-round knockout, Primus now looks to bounce back against Vinicius Cenci this Friday night.
Vinicius Cenci (8-2) steps into this first-round matchup with Brent Primus riding a three-fight win streak since his 2022 Contender Series loss. Most recently, Cenci edged Yabna Ferreira N'Tchala by split decision and finished Windor Santos Valentino by first-round TKO. Now, he looks to make a statement in his PFL debut this Friday night.
Here are the PFL World Tournament Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
PFL World Tournament Odds: Brent Primus-Vinicius Cenci Odds
Brent Primus: -675
Vinicius Cenci: +490
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Why Brent Primus Will Win
Brent Primus enters his first-round PFL World Championship matchup against Vinicius Cenci with a clear edge in experience, grappling pedigree, and recent form. Primus, a former Bellator lightweight champion and third-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, has faced and defeated elite competition throughout his career. In the 2024 PFL season, he submitted Bruno Miranda and Solomon Renfro before dominating Clay Collard by unanimous decision to reach the finals, where he ultimately fell to Gadzhi Rabadanov. Primus’s ability to mix crisp striking with relentless takedowns and top control has been a hallmark of his recent success, as evidenced by his 7-for-8 takedown rate and high ground strike output in 2024.
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Vinicius Cenci brings a solid submission game and a three-fight win streak into his PFL debut, but he has yet to face an opponent of Primus’s caliber. Cenci’s lone appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series ended in a submission loss, and his recent wins have come against less proven competition. Primus’s experience in high-pressure situations, superior grappling, and ability to control the fight’s tempo should allow him to neutralize Cenci’s offense and either secure a submission or grind out a clear decision, advancing to the next round of the tournament.
Why Vinicius Cenci Will Win
Vinicius Cenci has the momentum and finishing instincts to pull off an upset against Brent Primus this Friday in their PFL World Championship first-round matchup. Since his 2022 Contender Series setback, Cenci has rattled off three straight wins, showcasing his ability to finish fights, nearly all of his victories have come inside the distance. The Brazilian lightweight, fighting out of Kings MMA, brings a dangerous submission arsenal and a knack for capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes, with six of his ten wins coming by submission and another by knockout. His recent split decision over Yabna Ferreira N'Tchala and first-round TKO of Windor Santos Valentino highlight his versatility and composure under pressure.
Against Primus, Cenci’s path to victory lies in his aggression and unpredictability. While Primus is a decorated grappler, Cenci’s own submission skills and willingness to attack from any position could create scrambles and openings. If Cenci can keep the fight at a high pace and avoid being controlled on the mat, his youth, reach, and finishing ability may overwhelm the veteran. With nothing to lose as a late replacement, Cenci’s hunger and recent form make him a live underdog, capable of springing a surprise and advancing in the PFL tournament.
Final Brent Primus-Vinicius Cenci Prediction & Pick
Brent Primus vs. Vinicius Cenci is a classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup in the PFL World Championship’s lightweight bracket. Primus, a former Bellator champion and third-degree BJJ black belt, enters with a wealth of experience and a proven ability to finish fights on the ground, as seen in his recent PFL run with submissions over Bruno Miranda and Solomon Renfro, plus a dominant decision over Clay Collard. Cenci, stepping in as a late replacement, brings a three-fight win streak and a dangerous submission game of his own, but he’s yet to face someone of Primus’s caliber.
Expect Primus to use his wrestling and grappling to dictate the pace, looking for early takedowns and top control. Cenci’s best chance lies in creating scrambles and capitalizing on any mistakes, but Primus’s composure and experience in high-pressure situations should keep him safe. While Cenci is a live underdog with finishing ability, Primus’s superior ground game and tournament-tested skill set make him the favorite. Look for Primus to control the action, threaten with submissions, and either secure a late finish or cruise to a clear decision to advance in the PFL tournament.
Final Brent Primus-Vinicius Cenci Prediction & Pick: Brent Primus (-675)
