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Two teams looking to secure spots in the knockout round face off as Brest hosts Real Madrid. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Brest-Real Madrid prediction and pick.
Brest comes into the game 4-1-2 in Champions League play, placing them in 13th place currently. They are behind Bayer Leverkusen in goal differential for a spot straight to the round of 16 and within three points of fifth place. Still, with 13 points, they have secured a spot in the knockout round. They struggled in their last UCL game, falling 2-0 to Shakhtar Donetsk. Still, they have been solid at home, going with two wins and a draw in UCL play.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid is 4-0-3 in Champions League play. They have also secured a spot in the knockout round, but are currently in 16th. They are just a point behind Bayern Leverkusen for eighth, and an automatic birth to the round of 16, but would need a win and help to get into that spot. They are coming in off two straight wins in UCL play, and last time out dominated Salzburg, winning the game 5-1.
Here are the Brest-Real Madrid Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Brest-Real Madrid Odds
Brest: +650
Real Madrid: -270
Draw: +420
Over 3.5 goals: +118
Under 3.5 goals: -144
How to Watch Brest vs. Real Madrid
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Brest Will Win
Brest is scoring 1.43 goals per game in Champions League play so far. They have scored in five of their seven fixtures so far this year. They have been strong at home so far in UCL play, scoring 1.33 goals per game at home, but scoring in all three home fixtures so far.
Abdallah Sima has led the way in UCL play for Brest. He comes into the game scoring three goals in just four starts and six total appearances, averaging nearly a goal per 90 minutes. In Ligue 1 play, he has three goals and two assists. Meanwhile, Ludovic Ajorque has led the way in domestic league play. He has seven goals and an assist. He has yet to score in UCL play but does have two assists. Finally, Mahdi Camara has three goals in Ligue 1 play, while also having a goal in UCL play.
Brest has been strong on defense in UCL play. They have conceded just eight goals over the seven fixtures, good for just 1.14 per game. Further, they have conceded just two goals at home so far in three games in UCL play. They have two clean sheets this year in Champions League play, with the last one being a 1-0 victory at home over PSV.
Why Real Madrid Will Win
Real Madrid has scored very well so far in UCL play. In their seven fixtures, they have scored in five of them, scoring 17 goals in the process. That is good for 2.43 goals per game so far in UCL play. They have not been as good on the road scoring-wise. While they do average a goal per game on the road in UCL play, they have failed to score in two of the three games. All three away goals game in a 3-2 victory over Atalanta. Still, Atalanta has conceded just four goals overall.
Kylian Mbappe leads the way for Real Madrid. While he has 15 goals and two assists in La Liga play, he has just three goals and an assist in UCL play. The main scoring threat in UCL play has been Vinicius Junior. Junior has seven goals and an assist, while he has eight goals and five assists in La Liga play. Finally, Jude Bellingham has scored seven times with six assists in domestic league play, and has a goal and three assists in UCL play so far.
Real Madrid has conceded a fair amount of goals so far in UCL play. They have conceded 12 goals in their seven fixtures. They have conceded a goal in all seven fixtures so far. They have also been a little better at home, giving up just five goals over the three road games.
Final Brest-Real Madrid Prediction & Pick
With both teams already securing spots in the knockout round, there is little to play for for both teams. Brest has a stronger case to grab an automatic bid to the round of 16. Still, they would need to win, and either have five other teams lose, or pass them on goal differential. Passing five teams, including Aston Villa and Bayer Leverkusen will be tough. With Brest most likely fine with a draw in this game, while playing a Real Madrid struggling to score on the road, and a strong Brest defense, expect a low-scoring game.
Final Brest-Real Madrid Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 (-144)
