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With IBF heavyweight champion Daniel Dubois withdrawing on Thursday, Joseph Parker (35-3) will now face Martin Bakole (21-1) on Feb. 22. It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Joseph Parker-Martin Bakole prediction and pick.
Parker, 33, has quietly been one of the most underrated heavyweights over the past two years. Since suffering a late knockout loss to Joe Joyce in 2022, Parker has gone 5-0, including notable wins over former champions Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang in his last two outings.
Bakole, 31, rides a 10-fight win streak into this short-notice opportunity. He is coming off the biggest win of his career, a massive upset of former undefeated prospect Jared ‘Big Baby' Anderson. The two-day notice will be a big hurdle for Bakole to overcome, but Bakole's current run has him ranked as a consensus top-five heavyweight contender.
Here are the Joseph Parker-Martin Bakole odds, courtesy of Fanduel
Boxing Odds: Joseph Parker-Martin Bakole Odds
Joseph Parker: -190
Martin Bakole: +148
How to Watch Joseph Parker vs. Martin Bakole
Time: 11 a.m. ET / 8 a.m. PT
Co-main event ring walk time (estimated): 4:45 p.m. ET / 1:45 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Joseph Parker Will Win
Since he initially became a world champion in 2016, Parker has been consistently criticized for his apparent lack of chin strength. He has been knocked down four times in his last 13 fights, a discouraging rate for an aspiring two-time titleholder. However, despite being dropped twice by Zhang in his last fight, Parker is coming off back-to-back wins over two of the most powerful punchers of all time.
Without much power of his own, Parker earns his paychecks with his unmatched speed. When he has success, his hand speed often freezes opponents. It caused both Wilder and Zhang to become increasingly hesitant as the rounds ticked off the clock. Low volume is infamously Wilder's kryptonite but is uncharacteristic of Zhang, who currently has the highest plus-minus in the heavyweight division with a plus 11.2, per Compubox.
With Bakole flying in from Scotland less than 48 hours before the fight, the potential internal battles he will face just to get into fighting condition will likely already make him sluggish in the ring. He is naturally a plodding fighter to begin with as one of the largest heavyweights in boxing.
Why Martin Bakole Will Win
All but five of Bakole's career wins are by knockout. If he is going to pull off the upset and complete a ridiculous turnaround, he will need to beat Parker the same way. Despite just one loss since 2019, Parker has been dropped four times in his last eight fights.
Bakole has not had too many cardio issues in his career but has never fought past round 10. However, with his current brutal travel schedule, he is unlikely to beat a faster fighter like Parker in the later rounds. Parker can be a slow starter at times, a grey area Bakole has to exploit if he wants his trip to be worth the trouble. Parker has talked about bulking up all fight week and will reportedly be the heaviest of his career for this fight. As someone previously known for his hand speed and movement, that might have been a miscalculation against Dubois and is certainly not how to beat a slugger like Bakole.
However, even with Parker's additional weight, he will still be much faster and lighter than Bakole. That disadvantage did not matter much to Bakole in his last fight as he battered around the light-footed Anderson until stopping him in the fifth round. Bakole's durability was on full display against Anderson, who was not able to hurt him. That would serve the Congolese well against Parker, who has three knockouts in his last 10 fights.
Final Joseph Parker-Martin Bakole Prediction & Pick
Parker has to get credit for accepting this short-notice fight, as there is a lot of risk involved and not much for him to gain. Bakole, an explosive power puncher in his athletic prime, fits the mold of the exact type of fighters who have given Parker troubles lately while brimming with confidence off his recent win. Perhaps Parker merely did not want his preparation to go to waste, but this is not the traditional fill-in replacement.
Bakole might not have the same power as Zhilei Zhang or Deontay Wilder — Parker's last two opponents — but is much more active than both aging former champions. He averages over 65 punches thrown per round, the most of any top 10 heavyweight, per Compubox. For comparison, Parker throws 21 fewer punches per round. The level of competition is obviously notable, but given Zhang knocked Parker down twice in his last fight, Bakole truly needs just one to land.
Even with the travel and potential fatigue concerns, Parker will have to deal with Bakole in his face for as long as the fight lasts. In accepting the fight, Bakole seemingly acknowledges he has only a handful of rounds in him. The situation clearly favors Parker, but the odds are close for a reason; Bakole is simply one of the toughest matchups for him in the division. With the minimal information available, Bakole's knockout prop is more than worth a half unit.
Final Joseph Parker-Martin Bakole Prediction & Pick: Martin Bakole by KO/TKO (+210)
