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The Denver Broncos have high hopes for the 2023 season as Sean Payton comes aboard. We are here to share our NFL odds series, while making a Broncos over-under win total prediction and pick for the 2023 season.
The Broncos went 5-12 in 2022 and will look to rebound from what many considered a disappointing season. Thus, they fired Nathaniel Hacket, who the Broncos fired after a poor showing in his only year coaching for the Broncos. Payton arrives with the goal of fixing the Broncos and helping Russell Wilson recover from the worst season of his career. Now, he endures the tough task of helping Wilson and changing the culture in Denver.
The Broncos started the 2022 campaign with a 2-1 start. However, that start produced some false illusions as their offense struggled to produce anything noteworthy. The Broncos lost three in a row to fall to 2-4 before defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars. Subsequently, they fell to the Tennessee Titans, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Carolina Panthers, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs in what was an ugly five-game losing streak. They defeated the Arizona Cardinals before losing games to the Los Angeles Rams and Chiefs to close out the season before a meaningless win over the Chargers.
The Broncos invested in their weaknesses in the offseason as they signed right tackle Mike McGlinchey to a massive contract. Now, they have one of the best run blockers in the NFL opening lanes. The Broncos also have guard Ben Powers ready to create space for the rushing attack and for Wilson to make strides.
The biggest loss of the offseason was the departure of Dre'Mont Jones, who left after three seasons. Significantly, Jones had at least 5.5 sacks in each of the last three seasons.
Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 8.5 wins: +106
Under 8.5 wins: -123
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Why Denver Can Win 8.5 Games
Payton is one of the best coaches ever. Yes, he only won one Super Bowl while coaching the New Orleans Saints for two decades. But the Saints were competitive consistently and never wavered during his time in New Orleans.
Payton also comes to a team that produces one of the best safety/cornerback duos in the league in Justin Simmons and Pat Surtain II. Ultimately, those two will make it difficult for anyone to throw against them. The slot cornerback K'Waun Williams is among the best in the NFL.
The offensive line will have some flair after adding McGlinchey and Powers. Moreover, those two will carry a line that already has rising star Quinn Meinerz doing good things for the Broncos. But the line now has the task of opening lanes and also protecting Wilson.
The Broncos will win nine games because Payton will institute a system that benefits everyone. Likewise, it will help the defense improve, and the offensive line rises to the occasion.
Why Denver Can Not Win 8.5 Games
The Broncos struggled last season because they had one of the worst head coaches of all time. Amazingly, it was evident in Week 1 when he watsed so much time on the clock to set up a long field goal attempt, which the Broncos missed, rather than use the clock to get the ball closer to the end zone.
But the bigger horror story of the 2022 campaign was the fall of Wilson. Sadly, he played the worst he has ever played. When the Broncos traded for Wilson, they thought they were getting an enigmatic playmaker that could make ridiculous throws from all over the field while scaring defenses. Instead, they got a guy who constantly took sacks and looked unprepared for the playbook. Wilson offered some wisdom as he prepared for the 2023 season, but he must pick things up fast. Now, the pressure is on him to turn around and rebound from a season where he tossed for 3,524 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
Javonte Williams will return from two torn knee ligaments. Can he stay healthy? It is something the Broncos would like to find out as the season gets closer. However, they also signed Samaje Perine as insurance. Perine has been a great change-of-pace back for the Cincinnati Bengals. Now, he gets a chance to make a name for himself on the Broncos. The Broncos need more from Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. First, Jeudy had 67 catches for 972 yards. But he could not stay healthy. Then, Sutton had 64 catches for 829 yards and two touchdowns. But he also could not stay healthy.
Zach Allen must emerge on defense to give the pass rush some kind of advantage. Unfortunately, he has big shoes to fill.
The Broncos will not win nine games because Wilson will continue to struggle. Also, they play the Chiefs and the Chargers twice a year.
Final Denver Broncos Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Broncos did everything they could to fall on their face last season. However, I sense a bounce back. They will at least win nine games.
Final Denver Broncos Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5 wins: +106
