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Duke looks to move to 4-0 on the year with a win over UConn. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Duke-UConn prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Duke comes into the game with a 3-0 record on the season. It started with an upset of Clemson in the opening week. The defense controlled the game, allowing just seven points in the 28-7 victory. Then, it was an easy victory over Lafayette 42-7. In week three it was a victory over Northwestern. Once again, the defense was solid. They allowed two touchdowns in the game, both of them coming in the last two minutes of each half.
Meanwhile, UConn comes into the game at 0-3. They opened the season with a solid game, facing North Carolina State. They kept the game tight but ended up falling 24-14. The next week UConn struggled with Georgia State. UConn did not score until the fourth quarter, but by that point, they were down 28-0 already and would fall 35-14. Last week, they fell early again. This time against FIU. They were down 24-3 at the half, and while they tried to make a comeback, it was a 24-17 loss for the team.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Duke-UConn Odds
Duke: -22.5 (-108)
UConn: +22.5 (-112)
Over: 44.5 (-110)
Under: 44.5 (-110)
How to Watch Duke vs. UConn
TV: CBSSN
Stream: CBS Sports App
Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Duke Will Cover The Spread
For Duke, it is all about Riley Leonard. Leonard is 44-67 on the year passing for 530 yards and a touchdown. He has been careful with the ball as well. Leonard has not thrown a turnover-worthy pass this year. He has done this in the face of pressure as well. Leonard has been pressured 32 times on 82 dropbacks, but he has been sacked just once while scrambling for positive yardage 14 times.
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Leonard has been great on the ground this year. He has his 14 scrambles and 13 rushes this year. He has 205 yards on the ground, with 127 of them coming through scrambles. Leonard has also scored three times on the ground this year while forcing 14 missed tackles this year. Duke would like to see their running game continue to churn. Jordan Waters has been a huge part of that. This year he has rushed for 240 yards and five touchdowns with one fumble. He has been getting great blocking, with a first point of contact nearly three yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Waters has also forced 11 missed tackles while having runs of over 15 yards six different times.
Duke also needs Jalon Calhoun to continue his solid season. This year he has brought in 14 of 20 targets for 182 yards. He had a touchdown and just one drop this year out of the slot.
The Duke's defense has also been solid. Last time out against Northwestern they had 17 quarterback pressures and three sacks. RJ Oben has been an issue for quarterbacks all year long. He has ten quarterback pressures this year with a sack. Meanwhile, Aaron Hall has two sacks this year, has forced a fumble, and batted down a ball at the line. Against the run, Duke was good last week as well. They missed just five tackles and made 12 stops for offensive failure in 23 rush attempts.
Why UConn Will Cover The Spread
Ta'Quan Roberson is expected to get the start in this game, as he replaces Joseph Fagnano who is injured. Roberson has been solid since taking over the job. He is 34-62 passing this year for 388 yards and three touchdowns. He does have an interception, but that is the only accuracy mistake he has made this year. There have been two major issues for him this year. First is pressure. Last game he was pressured 17 times on 37 dropbacks. That led to just one sack, but he did have to scramble four times for positive yardage. The second is drops. Roberson has already dealt with seven drops this year.
Brett Buckman has been the main target this year at receiver. He has brought in 16 of 23 targets this year for 174 yards and a touchdown. While he has been fairly reliable he has dropped two passes this year.
UConn will also want to keep Riley Leonard off the field, and that starts with a good rushing attack. The lead back for UConn has been Devontate Houston. Houston had 159 yards rushing on 33 attempts this year. After not getting the best run blocking in the first two games of the series, the offensive line was better last time out. He was over two yards downfield on average before first contact. If they can do that again against Duke, UConn will control the clock and keep this close.
UConn also needs to slow down the rushing attack from Dule. That is something they did well against FIU. Jelani Stafford was great in the run game. He had five tackles in the game, with five stops for offensive failures. His average point of tackle was also a yard in the backfield. UConn had a success rate on defense in running plays of over 50 percent and only missed five tackles in the game. They will also need to get good pressure on Leonard. That will start with Pryce Yates. Yates has nine quarterbacks pressured this year and that has led to one sack. He has missed seven tackles this year though, so if he can wrap up the quarterback better, the sack numbers will improve.
Final Duke-UConn Prediction & Pick
These are two teams going in opposite directions. UConn was a major surprise last year but has struggled all year long. Duke has been hot to start the year. They have a great defense and UConn is struggling on offense. They have already had to make a quarterback change this year due to injury. UConn is also missing their top tight end. They have not been efficient on offense either. Currently, UConn sits 117th nationally in yards per game. That is not going to improve in this one. Duke will shut down the UConn offense while scoring plenty of runs. Take Duke in this game.
Final Duke-UConn Prediction & Pick: Duke -22.5 (-108)
