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The NBA season continues, and we have a tilt between the Miami Heat and the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Heat-Pelicans prediction and pick.
The Miami Heat travel to face the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, April 11, at the Smoothie King Center. Miami has won three out of their last four road games and aims to sweep the season series against New Orleans. Tyler Herro, averaging 23.9 points per game, leads the Heat offensively, while Bam Adebayo anchors the defense with 9.6 rebounds per game. The Pelicans, plagued by injuries to key players like Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, have been on a drastic losing skid and struggle defensively, allowing 118.7 points per game. Yves Missi’s rebounding presence will be crucial for New Orleans as they look to end their skid.
Here are the Heat-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Heat-Pelicans Odds
Miami Heat: -13 (-110)
Moneyline: -770
New Orleans Pelicans: +13 (-110)
Moneyline: +540
Over: 215 (-110)
Under: 215 (-110)
How To Watch Heat vs. Pelicans
Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT
TV: NBA League Pass
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Heat Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Miami Heat are poised to win and cover the spread against the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday, thanks to their strong form and favorable matchup. Miami enters the game winning three out of their last four on the road, showcasing improved offensive efficiency by averaging 115.6 points per game over their last 10 outings, compared to their season average of 110.0. Defensively, they rank seventh in the league, allowing just 109.9 points per game this season, which is a stark contrast to New Orleans' fifth-worst defense that concedes 118.7 points per game. With Tyler Herro leading the offense and Bam Adebayo anchoring the defense, Miami’s balanced approach gives them a significant edge.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are riddled with injuries to key players like Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, severely limiting their scoring options. Their offense has struggled, ranking 24th in points per game (110.0), while their defense has been porous, allowing opponents to dominate on the boards and from beyond the arc. Miami's ability to exploit these weaknesses, particularly with their efficient three-point shooting (36.7%), makes them likely to control the pace and pull away early. Additionally, New Orleans has been on a bad losing skid and lacks the depth to compete against a Heat team fighting for postseason positioning. Expect Miami to capitalize on mismatches and get back on track en route to covering the spread comfortably.
Why the Pelicans Could Cover the Spread/Win
Despite their struggles, the New Orleans Pelicans have a strong case to cover the spread against the Miami Heat on Friday. Recent betting trends highlight New Orleans’ resilience, as they’ve gone 6-2-2 against the spread in their last 10 games, even while dealing with significant injuries. Yves Missi, the Pelicans’ standout rookie, has been a force on the boards, averaging 8.2 rebounds per game. His ability to control the glass could neutralize Bam Adebayo’s impact and give New Orleans second-chance opportunities. Additionally, Miami’s perimeter defense has been inconsistent, which opens the door for players like Jose Alvarado to contribute from deep.
The Heat have been solid defensively but are vulnerable on the road, where they’ve allowed opponents to shoot efficiently from beyond the arc. While Miami is favored, their offensive production has been inconsistent outside of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, especially with Herro recently dealing with a thigh issue. The Pelicans’ home-court advantage at the Smoothie King Center could also play a role; they’ve hit the over in 19 of 38 home games this season, showing their ability to keep games competitive. If New Orleans can slow the pace and capitalize on Miami’s defensive lapses, they have a legitimate chance to cover the spread and potentially pull off an upset.
Final Heat-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
The Miami Heat are favored to win and cover the spread against the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. Miami has been in solid form, riding a three-game road winning streak while improving offensively, averaging 115.6 points per game over their last ten contests. Their defense, ranked seventh in the league, allows just 109.9 points per game, giving them a clear edge over New Orleans’ struggling unit, which concedes 118.7 points per game.
The Pelicans, plagued by injuries to key players like Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum, are on a huge losing skid, and lack depth to compete effectively. Miami’s balanced attack, led by Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, should exploit New Orleans’ defensive vulnerabilities. Expect the Heat to win comfortably and cover the spread.
Final Heat-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -13 (-110), Over 215 (-110)
