Top-10 featherweights collide at UFC 320 when Josh Emmett (19-5) puts his ranking on the line against the streaking Youssef Zalal (17-5-1). It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Emmett-Zalal prediction and pick.
Emmett, 40, is just 1-3 in his last four fights, but each of those losses has come against championship-level fighters. Two of them, Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez, have already gone on to fight for the undisputed 145-pound belt, while Emmett's most recent opponent, Lerone Murphy, is likely next in line. Despite his advanced age, Emmett is still widely recognized as the most powerful fighter in the division, as evidenced by his most recent win over Bryce Mitchell at UFC 296.
Zalal, 29, enters the fight on a seven-fight win streak, including his last four in the UFC. ‘The Moroccan Devil' has not lost since being released from the UFC in 2022, and has been on a tear since rejoining the promotion two years later. Zalal is coming off a dominant decision win over Calvin Kattar at UFC Vegas 102 that vaulted him into the top 10.
Here are the UFC 320 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 320 Odds: Josh Emmett-Youssef Zalal Odds
Josh Emmett: +340
Youssef Zalal: -440
Over 2.5 rounds: -315
Under 2.5 rounds: +230
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Why Josh Emmett Will Win
Whenever Emmett wins, it is because of his power. He has become somewhat of a one-trick pony at this point in his career, but that trick is uniquely effective whenever it lands. Emmett has landed just 35 percent of his significant strikes in the UFC, but has an absurd 12 knockdowns in 15 promotional outings.
Although Zalal has yet to be knocked out, he has been affected by power before. He was cruising against Kattar in his last fight, dominating the first two rounds, before taking a massive shot early in the final frame that convinced him to get on his bike. Perhaps he cruised to the end after banking the first two rounds, but the fight clearly changed after he took a big right hand.
Zalal is an elite striker, but his bread and butter is on the ground. Against a fighter like Emmett, he will look to get the fight to the ground. That might be the best-case scenario for Emmett, who is 4-1 against fighters who average over 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.
Why Youssef Zalal Will Win
If Zalal wants to pick up another win that moves him up the rankings, all he has to do is follow the blueprint clearly laid out for him to get his hand raised on Saturday. Zalal has a very similar fighting style to Lerone Murphy, who just cruised to a relatively seamless victory against Emmett in April.
Emmett is most effective against fighters who look to trade with him in the pocket. He is willing to take three to five punches just to land one, knowing the effect that his strikes have.
However, Emmett struggles against opponents who can manipulate distance and pop in and out of range. His counters are almost exclusively limited to overhands, which Ilia Topuria, Yair Rodriguez and Murphy exposed. Aside from Topuria, none of those fighters is as good defensively as Zalal, who has absorbed just 1.8 significant strikes per minute through his 12 UFC fights.
Final Josh Emmett-Youssef Zalal Prediction & Pick
Emmett is always live for a knockout, but that will be his only hope to emerge victorious at UFC 320. Otherwise, this fight should look relatively similar to his most recent loss to Lerone Murphy.
Emmett can hurt Zalal in the pocket, but fewer fighters in the featherweight division are more difficult to pin down. Not only does Zalal enter this fight with a notable height and reach advantage, but his footwork and head movement are comparable to the best. Finding another fighter who is better at mitigating damage is a challenge.
However, despite the recent criticism Zalal received for his fight with Calvin Kattar, he is an elite finisher. Once he finds a rhythm, he is deceptively dangerous on the feet and a superb grappler once the fight hits the mat, which is where he wants to be.
Emmett has only been stopped twice in his 24-fight career, but he has been severely hurt in each of his last three losses and finished in one of them. Emmett, whose most recent submission loss was a “club and sub,” has yet to face a fighter as good at sinking in a submission against a hurt opponent as Zalal.
With Zalal's decision prop juiced to the moon, his submission odds are more than worth a sprinkle.
Final Josh Emmett-Youssef Zalal Prediction & Pick: Youssef Zalal by submission (+500), Under 2.5 rounds (+230)
