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The New York Mets will begin a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday at Busch Stadium. It will be a National League showdown in St. Louis as we continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Cardinals prediction and pick.
Mets-Cardinals Projected Starters
Clay Holmes vs. Sonny Gray
Clay Holmes (3-1) with a 2.64 ERA
Last Start: Homes tossed five shutout innings in his last outing, allowing four hits and striking out two in a win over the Washington Nationals.
Away Splits: Holmes has been great on the road, going 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in four starts away from Citi Field.
Sonny Gray (3-0) with a 3.60 ERA
Last Start: Gray went six innings in his last outing, allowing three earned runs on seven hits while striking out four and walking three in a no-decision against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Home Splits: Gray has been decent at home, going 2-0 with a 3.75 ERA over four starts at home.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Cardinals Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (-136)
Moneyline: -122
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: +104
Over: 7.5 (-115)
Under: 7.5 (-105)
How to Watch Mets vs. Cardinals
Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT
TV: SNY and Bally Sports Missouri
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
Juan Soto has struggled this season and is still trying to figure it out. Sadly, the all-star slugger is batting just .241 with three home runs, 12 RBIs, and 21 runs. That is not what the Mets thought they were getting when they gave him a massive contract. Therefore, Soto is the key to the ignition, and must pick things up. Despite Soto's struggles, others have stepped up to the plate. Notably, Brandon Nimmo has been exceptional at times and despite hitting .216, is also clobbering six home runs and 21 RBIs while scoring 13 runs. Pete Alonso remains a rock-steady presence in the lineup, batting .343 with seven home runs, 28 RBIs, and 22 runs. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor is hitting .308 with six home runs, 16 RBIs, and 22 runs.
Holmes has been good for the Mets. Now, he will try to keep the ball rolling as he faces an average lineup on the road. When Holmes exits the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is the seventh-best in baseball. Edwin Diaz is the man who closes things out, coming in with a record of 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and seven saves.
The Mets will cover the spread if their big hitters can make contact and drive the ball into the outfield to drive runners home. Then, they need another good outing from Holmes.
Why The Cardinals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Nolan Arenado continues to hit the baseball and is one of the rare gems on a team that does not have many. However, he has struggled often, batting just .243 with three home runs, 13 RBIs, and 13 runs. Laars Nootbar has been steadily consistent. So far, he is hitting .263 with five home runs, 18 RBIs, and 21 runs. Brendan Donovan has remained solid. Ultimately, he is batting .333 with three home runs, 17 RBIs, and 16 runs. Victor Scott II looks promising in this lineup. He is hitting .271 with two home runs, 14 RBIs, and 14 runs.
Gray has had a good start to the season. Yet, it still has not been enough to carry this team. Whenever Gray leaves the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 20th in baseball. If the Cardinals can somehow get him the lead, Ryan Helsley will close things out, coming in with a mark of 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA and four saves.
The Cardinals will cover the spread if their hitters can string some hits together and formulate a big inning to chase Holmes. Then, Gray needs to hit his spots and avoid making mistakes down the heart of the plate against some of the better hitters in this lineup.
Final Mets-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Mets are 18-13 against the spread, while the Cardinals are 15-16. Additionally, the Mets are 8-8 against the spread on the road, while the Cards are 8-7 against the spread at home.
The Mets have had a fantastic start to their season and certainly look like contenders for the pennant this season. Conversely, the Cardinals have been mired in mediocrity and appear to be no threat to compete. Overall, the Mets have found their footing and also have the matchup advantage. The Mets swept the three-game series at Busch Stadium last season. Consequently, I can see them doing well again, as they are much better than the Cards. The Mets cover the spread and win in St. Louis.
Final Mets-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (-136)
