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The Miami Heat travel to the Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors for the first time this season. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Heat hold a record of 11-16 overall, and are 9-17-1 against the spread. Miami is coming off a loss to the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Warriors stand at 15-13 overall and 14-14 against the spread. In the Warriors’ most recent game, they blew out the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Heat-Warriors odds.
NBA Odds: Heat-Warriors Odds
Miami Heat +1.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors 1.5 (-110)
Over 222.5 Points (-110)
Under 222.5 Points (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
On paper, it looks like the biggest advantage for the Heat would be their defense. Surprisingly, the Warriors have actually put up better defensive numbers lately.
Golden State has held opponents to the second-lowest field goal percentage in the league, while Miami stands in fourth place. The Warriors (5th) actually hold a better defensive ranking then Miami (12th) on the season.
The Heat's downfall this season has been defending the three-point line. Miami allows the second most three-point makes in the league.
Against a Warriors offense that is going to launch plenty of shots from deep tonight, this could be a nightmare for Erik Spoelstra's defense.
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Without a true center on the roster, the Warriors are shooting more threes than they have all season. Golden State has shot the three-ball at a 40% or above clip in three out of their last four matchups.
On the other end of the floor, the Golden State defense gets their second straight offensively challenged opponent.
Just two days after facing a Cleveland team that's scored the least points in the league, they get to face a Heat squad that has scored the fourth-least points and is dead last in field goals made.
Expect the Warriors to push the pace and do their best to make this look like a pick-up game to get Steph Curry and company as many good looks from deep as possible and keep the Heat defense on their heels.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Because the Heat roster has been ravaged by COVID all year, bettors have to take the numbers they've put up so far with a grain of salt.
There's no way a Miami team that was top five in offensive efficiency last season just dropped off the map this year to fall in the bottom three with no major roster changes.
Part of the reason for the poor numbers this year is Jimmy Butler's absence for nearly half of the Heat's games. Butler is the heart and soul of this squad, and the numbers are drastically different with him in the lineup.
With Butler active, the Heat are 8-7. Without Butler, they're 3-9. More importantly, the offense has scored below 100 only twice in 15 games with Butler playing. When he sits, the Heat have failed to hit triple digits four times in 12 matchups.
Thankfully for Miami, Butler is active tonight and should give the offense a much needed boost against a stingy Warriors defense.
Another Heat player to keep an eye on here will be Bam Adebayo. Adebayo should get whatever he wants on the offensive side of the floor and grab at least a few easy putbacks against a team that allows the most offensive rebounds in the league.
The key for the Heat here is to play the grit and grind style that wins them games. Incredibly, Miami has not won a single game in which their opponent has scored 110 points or more. As long as they don't let the Warriors have any explosive 35-40 point quarters, Miami will stick around in this one and can pull an upset.
Final Heat-Warriors Prediction & Pick
Because I like the odds of this being a lower-scoring game, I'm going to back the team that has fared better with fewer points scored and back the Heat here. For both of these teams, defense has been key in getting wins, and I think the more experienced Heat have the upper hand if this comes down to a one-possession game in the closing minutes. Additionally, the Heat are a team that play with a lot of heart, and after the embarrassing loss to the short-handed Clippers, I think they come out with a little extra fire. I'll take Miami to bounce back in the Bay.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: MIA 110, GSW 106 (MIA +1.5)
