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The Sacramento Kings (2-4) travel east to take on the Miami Heat (3-5) in a non-conference affair on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Kings-Heat prediction and pick.
After starting 0-4, Sacramento has won two straight games including a victory over the Heat last week. Despite their record, the Kings are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) – a vast improvement over last year's 48% cover rate. Four of their six games have gone under – a flip from last year's 54% over rate.
Miami has had a rough start at just 3-5 but are coming off their best win of the season over Golden State. The Heat have covered are just 2-6 against the spread after covering 57% of games last year. Miami's games have gone under four times after a slight preference to the over (55%) last season.
The teams split the season series last year with the Kings winning by two at home and the Heat winning by 23 in Miami. Sacramento did take last week's matchup by six. Each of the last three matchups between the two has gone over tonight's 221-point total.
Here are the Kings-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Kings-Heat Odds
Sacramento Kings: +6 (-110)
Miami Heat: -6 (-110)
Over: 221 (-108)
Under: 221 (-112)
Why The Kings Could Cover The Spread
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Sacramento was a trendy sleeper pick for the play-in after their strong finish to the 2021-22 season. Things have not gone according to plan in the early portion of the season. Sacramento needs to improve on both sides of the ball as they are 19th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They do rebound the ball well (6th in rebound differential) and do a good job forcing more turnovers than they commit (3rd in TO differential).
The Kings were red-hot in their win over the Heat last week – showing 55% overall and 14-31 from three. All five starters scored in double digits in the win – an encouraging sign especially considering their recent injury news. Point guard De'Aaron Fox exited Monday's win over the Hornets and will not play tonight. Sacramento didn't miss a beat, however, as backcourt-mater Kevin Huerter (26 points) and backup point guard Davion Mitchell (23 points) propelled the team to victory.
While Mitchell and Huerter will certainly be huge factors in Fox's absence, whether or not the Kings cover will come down to two things. First, they have to slow down Miami's guards. Despite Sacramento winning last week, they gave up a combined 60 points from Miami guards Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Max Strus. Herro, in particular, gave them fits en route to his game-high 34 points. The addition of Davion Mitchell to the starting lineup actually projects to be a defensive improvement over Fox which is something to keep in mind when making a Kings-Heat prediction.
Most importantly, however, the Kings have to get more out of big man Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis was excellent last year after coming over from Indiana but has struggled to start the year. He's averaging just 13.5 points and 10.3 rebounds which would be his lowest numbers since 2018-19.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami was a machine last year en route to finishing with the Eastern Conference's best regular season record. That has not been the case thus far. Miami's usually-stout defense has been perfectly average (15th in adjusted defensive efficiency) but the real issues lie with their offense. The Heat are 26th in scoring and 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
It's hard to put the offensive blame on one player in particular as Miami has five players averaging over 12 points per game. Miami's issues lie less in their roster composition and more in the consistency of the roster. Jimmy Butler (21.5 PPG) had an uncharacteristic off-night in their loss to Sacramento last time out, shooting just 4-11 en route to 13 points. Tyler Herro carried the load in the six-point loss but is questionable after exiting last night's game. If he's forced to miss, it'll fall to Max Strus and Kyle Lowry to handle the backcourt duties.
Despite Lowry's age, he remains a formidable option at point guard. The 36-year-old averages 12.5 points and 5.8 assists per game but will likely see higher usage in the absence of Herro. The big X-factor whether Herro misses or not is backup point guard Max Strus. Strus was excellent in an extended run on Tuesday – scoring 24 points on 8-17 shooting. He'll be called upon early and often regardless of the status of Herro as he's developed into one of the league's premier scoring options off the bench.
Final Kings-Heat Prediction & Pick
With significant injuries on both sides and Sacramento's success against the Heat last week, I don't love a play on either team. The over, however, is enticing given that each of the last three matchups has surpassed 221.
Final Kings-Heat Prediction & Pick: Over 221 Points (-112)
