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The San Antonio Spurs (13-27) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (26-13) on Monday night. Action tips off at 8:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Spurs-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
San Antonio has lost four of their last five games to drop them to 14th place in the Western Conference. The Spurs have covered 48 percent of their games while 59 percent have gone over the projected point total. Memphis has won six consecutive games but is still tied for first place in the West. The Grizzlies have covered 54% of their games while 53 percent have gone under. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. Memphis took a two-point, overtime victory in the opener.
Here are the Spurs-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Spurs-Grizzlies Odds
San Antonio Spurs: +11.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies: -11.5 (-110)
Over: 238 (-110)
Under: 238 (-110)
How To Watch Spurs vs. Grizzlies
TV: Bally Southwest, Bally Southeast
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
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Why The Spurs Could Cover The Spread
If the Spurs are going to cover the spread against the first-place Grizzlies, they're going to need to sure up their defense. San Antonio allows the most points per game (120.6 Opp. PPG) and the highest field goal percentage (50.5 percent Opp. FG%) in the league. That being said, they competed with the Celtics last weekend and kept things close with the Knicks the week prior. They dominated the Celtics in the paint, outscoring them 70-54 and out-rebounding them 51-43. Likewise, San Antonio will need to follow a similar formula tonight as they're matched up with a Memphis team that leads the league in points in the paint (58.9 PPG) and rebounding (59.1 RPG).
The key for San Antonio covering tonight is being able to compete in the paint. That starts with center Jakob Poeltl. The 7'1″ center has been solid this season, averaging 11.9 PPG and 9.5 RPG. His 64 percent field goal percentage ranks fifth in the NBA – demonstrating his efficiency down low. The burley center will have his work cut out for him tonight against a fearsome Memphis frontline. However, he's already found success against the Grizzlies. In the team's two-point loss to Memphis earlier in the season Poeltl scored 22 points (10-12 shooting) and secured nine rebounds. He has missed some time with an Achilles injury but is probably to play tonight.
With guard Devin Vassell out for the foreseeable future and forward Keldon Johnson questionable tonight, point guard Tre Jones will likely need to step up if the Spurs want to cover tonight. In the first matchup between Tre and his brother Tyus Jones, the Spurs guard was up-and-down. Â Jones shot just 4-13 from the floor en route to 11 points in the inefficient outing. He was tremendous as a playmaker, however, as he ended the game with 11 assists. He'll likely need to be more involved as a scorer tonight with some key pieces potentially out of action. That being said, Jones has put together two consecutive strong performances. He scored 18 points in their most recent loss to the Celtics and had 25 points in their win over the Pistons the night before.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Memphis is rolling right now, having won six straight games even with star Ja Morant missing their most recent game. While Morant takes them to championship caliber, the Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the NBA even when he's out. They proved that last year when they blasted through the regular season with Morant injured and will likely be in a strong position to cover tonight regardless of Ja's status. Memphis dominates opponents down low as they lead the league in points in the paint and rebounding. That will likely be the key to covering tonight as well.
For as good as the Grizzlies' big men have been this season, they've been even better during their six-game win streak. Center Steven Adams controlled the glass with an average of 16.4 RPG during their last six games. While he doesn't provide much on offense as far as scoring, he's averaged 2.4 STOCKS (steals plus blocks) during their win streak.
Forward Jaren Jackson Jr. has been just as vital down low, scoring 18.8 PPG and pulling down 7.3 RPG. Jackson is the rare big man who can shoot the three as well as he can block shots and that is where his value comes from. He has averaged 1.5 made threes per game during their win streak while also blocking an astronomical 3.7 shots per game.
Final Spurs-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
Memphis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. A home date with the lowly Spurs won't be enough to cool them down. Therefore, hammer the home favorites.
Final Spurs-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -11.5 (-110)
