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It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Nevada-Air Force prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Nevada-Air Force.
This Mountain West game on Tuesday night will fly under the radar screen, and it should. Before the season, this looked like a game Nevada would need to win in order to maintain an NCAA Tournament position. Nevada figured to be fully in the mix for March Madness. Air Force figured to be a bad team playing spoiler. Nevada figured to be in a position where losing to Air Force might push the Wolf Pack down toward the bubble, given how costly a loss to the Falcons would be.
The part about Air Force not being good? That has held up. AFA is 0-11 in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons lost to Fresno State and sit in the basement of their league. That part of the conventional wisdom has been reinforced by reality.
The part about Nevada being an NCAA Tournament team in 2025? That has not held up. The Wolf Pack have had an awful season. They lost a bunch of close games in the first weeks of the Mountain West season and could not figure out how to turn their campaign around. Nevada has struggled on offense and has not been able to finish games well. The Wolf Pack have been easy for opponents to defend. There are simply not enough dynamic scorers and shotmakers on this roster. Steve Alford needs a significant roster upgrade in the coming offseason, and Nevada has to know that it must field a team with at least three legitimate offensive options. This season's team has not had anything close to that. It will be fascinating to see how Nevada, an underachieving team, fares against the last-place team in the Mountain West on the road. It's a meeting of two teams which have failed to reach their own personal expectations by very large margins.
Here are the Nevada-Air Force College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: Nevada-Air Force Odds
Nevada: -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -520
Air Force: +9.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +385
Over: 128.5 (-115)
Under: 128.5 (-105)
How to Watch Nevada vs Air Force
Time: 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT
TV: Mountain West Network
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Why Nevada Will Cover The Spread/Win
No, Nevada is not a good team, but Air Force is terrible. An 0-11 record in the Mountain West Conference speaks for itself. Moreover, if you look at Air Force's last five games, the margin of defeat has been at least nine points in four of the five losses. The margin of defeat has been at least 11 points in three of the five losses. With the spread being what it is, the bottom line is simple: If Air Force loses by its average margin of defeat over the past five games, Nevada will indeed cover the spread. Air Force is consistently bad at a level which justifies picking Nevada against the spread.
Why Air Force Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Falcons are not a good team, but Nevada is having an atrocious season and should probably not be favored by 9.5 points on the road over anyone. Nevada has rarely covered spreads this season. The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They covered against UNLV this past weekend but had failed to cover the spread in their previous four games. Air Force could lose this game by nine points and yet still cover. That's a good margin for error against a Nevada team which has not earned the benefit of the doubt.
Final Nevada-Air Force Prediction & Pick
Our lean is to Air Force, given Nevada's mediocrity this season, but trusting a terrible AFA team with our money does not make sense, either. This is a game where watching the first 10 minutes and getting a sense of the flow of play could offer an angle for a live bet, maybe during the second half.
Final Nevada-Air Force Prediction & Pick: Air Force +9.5
