NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 4: Cowboys-Giants stays close

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To start the NFL Week 4 schedule, we shift from the AFC East to the NFC East with the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants headlining Thursday night. The Cowboys are near-touchdown favorites in the mid-week game, but neither of these teams has been all that impressive through three weeks. Hopefully, that means a close, exciting game at least after back-to-back Thursday blowouts. We’ll find out that and more here in the ClutchPoints NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Over the course of Week 3, a few things seemed to be true. The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL right now, Andy Dalton is a better quarterback than the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, and Jayden Daniels is the top rookie QB (so far). Will these things hold true in Week 4 or will the league throw fans even more curveballs this week?

This weekend, we get the last bye-free week of NFL games until Week 13 at the beginning of December, so enjoy the full slate while you can. On the NFL Week 4 docket, we have a Thursday game, eight 1 pm ET games on Sunday, four 4 pm ET window Sunday matchups, a Sunday night tilt, and once again, two Monday nighters.

It took two weeks to calibrate, but we are back on the winning track, going 9-7 both straight up and against the spread in Week 3. We got there different ways, picking the winner but not covering with the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs, and covering but not picking the winner with the Los Angeles Rams and Washington Commanders.

Heading into the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column, we were now 25-23 just picking winners in 2024 and 19-29 versus the spread. A few more weeks like last week and we’ll be right back in the money on both sides of the ledger.

With that, let’s get right into the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds.

Previous Weeks: Week 1| Week 2 | Week 3

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at New York Giants

The Cowboys once again threw up all over themselves in Week 3, getting beat by the Ravens in Dallas. This week they go on the road and play the Giants on a short week and coming off their first win of the season. So, let's make a Cowboys-Giants pick first in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Ultimately, while the Cowboys aren’t to be trusted, neither is Daniel Jones. The Big Blue QB is not good at all in primetime games, and dogs winning straight up usually revert to the mean the next week. Again — and I can’t stress this enough — I don’t trust Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys at all, but the overall talent on that side of the field should carry the away team to victory, although not with a cover.

Pick: Cowboys 16-13

UPDATE: Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey shockingly missed his first kick of the year to start the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column off 1-0 straight up and against the spread. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers

Andy Dalton single-handedly proved that Bryce Young is a bust, making the Panthers look like a professional football team and leading them to victory in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Bengals continued to bungle and dropped to 0-3, essentially ending their playoff hopes.

While evaluating the games in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column, it seems like last week was a one-week new QB bump for the Panthers, while the Bengals are too good to drop all the way to 0-4.

Pick: Bengals 21-9

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5)

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix looked great in Week 3, slicing and dicing the Buccaneers with his arm and his legs. The question now is, was that real? Or was it more about the Bucs just not showing up to play?

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers and company are coming off extra rest following their Thursday night win over the Patriots, and the Jets defense should be chomping at the bit to knock the rookie QB off his pedestal. Jets by a lot seems realistic here.

Pick: Jets 28-12

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

While the Falcons have looked better the past two weeks hanging with the Chiefs and beating the Eagles, there are still major question marks as to why Atlanta can’t seem to play to the level of its immense offensive talent.

The Saints took an L last week after looking like the most dangerous offense in football, so line-wise, they’ve come back down to earth here. The NO offense against the ATL defense will be the story here, though, and the former gets the nod.

Pick: Saints 21-17

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

This may be the week that Jordan Love returns and the Packers are back at something resembling full strength. On the other hand, Sam Darnold is now dealing with a bit of an injury for the high-flying Vikings.

Still, this is about the aggressive Vikings D and defensive coordinator Brian Flores getting to tee off on Love, who will not be at full strength following his Week 1 injury. No matter which QB comes out for the Packers, the Vikes will take this one.

Pick: Vikings 20-10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7)

The Jaguars probably aren't one of the three or four worst teams in the league this season, but their record says they are. They have lost to two explosive offenses (the pre-Tua injury Dolphins and the Bills) and the Browns, which may give them some legitimate excuses. That said, Doug Pederson can't seem to get through and Trevor Lawrence doesn't seem to care, which is a bad combination.

In Houston, the Texans will be hopping mad and ready to get back to their winning ways after getting smashed by the Vikings in Week 3. In Week 4, C.J. Stroud and company will be the ones doing the smashing as they win by the same score they lost by the week prior.

Pick: Texans 34-7

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) Indianapolis Colts

This is a pretty simple pick here that agrees with the line and agrees with the public, as problematic as that sometimes is. But the Steelers defense is great and Anthony Richardson has yet to show he can make plays on a consistent basis. Sure, there is always the potential that Justin Fields can look a lot like Richardson on a given Sunday, but for now, he's the better QB.

This game will come down to turnovers, and as long as Fields can manage the game well and not succumb to the interception bug, it will be the Steelers defense that wins the day for its team.

Pick: Steelers 16-9

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3)

The Rams are decimated by injuries right now but they still were able to take down their NFC West rival 49ers with a dramatic last-second field goal on Sunday. The Bears are much healthier, but rookie QB Caleb Williams still hasn’t played a great (or even really good) game yet.

When you have a chance to take the better coach, the better quarterback, and the points in a game, grab that team! The Rams have the advantage on all those fronts and will be the next team to give Williams a hearty, “Welcome to the NFL, Rook!”

Pick: Rams 24-23

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If this game happened last week, the spread would probably be flipped here. But after a Buccaneers loss to the Broncos and an Eagles win over the high-flying Saints, Vegas is back on the Eagles bandwagon.

Here in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column, we take into account the whole season, not just “What have you done for me lately?” That’s why the Buccaneers at home still get the nod, especially getting points.

Pick: Buccaneers 28-27

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New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

This is a line that seems built on preseason reputations more than the three weeks of football that we’ve seen. So far, the Patriots aren’t nearly as bad as they seem, especially in the run game, and the 49ers are a complete wreck due to injuries. The latest one, DT Javon Hargrave, really hurts the team’s run defense, which the Pats will take advantage of.

The Patriots still don’t seem built to pull off this kind of upset on the road, but seeing the first double-digit spread of the season should make you want to take the points here.

Pick: 49ers 15-12

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

There are exceptions to every rule. There has been and will be a lot of talk in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column about how you can't be a prisoner of the moment and just go on what you saw last game. That said, it's a little different after a rookie quarterback had his breakout game. That's what Jayden Daniels did in Week 2, and why we may be a little higher than most on the Commanders here.

The Commanders and Cardinals are similar teams, with talented unorthodox QBs, a few explosive weapons, and shotty defenses. This should ba a fun track meet to watch at the very least, and in the end, give me the points and the No. 2 overall pick.

Pick: Commanders 33-31

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Los Angeles Chargers

As they are prone to do, the Chiefs are coasting through the 2024 regular season, seemingly giving minimal (for them) effort and still coming away with win after win. The Chargers have a hobbled Justin Herbert, on the other hand, and that is never good.

Taking a bigger-than-a-touchdown spread with the Chiefs is dangerous, as they obviously don’t care about winning by more than a single point or even losing a regular season game. That said, they should be able to get by on this one on talent alone, especially if Herbert doesn’t start or finish the game.

Pick: Chiefs 27-13

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5)

This is a stinky game that could easily go either way depending on which version of each team shows up. Deshaun Watson and the Browns offense has been horrific at times, as has the entire Raiders team this season, as evidenced by losing to the Panthers last week.

Antonio Pierce does seem like a good motivator, though, and he already basically threatened to cut guys who don’t play hard after last week’s games. That should be enough for his team to make the “business decisions” they need to in order to win Sunday’s game.

Pick: Raiders 19-16

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Outside of the opening half of Week 1 against the Cardinals, the Bills have looked dominant through three weeks, playing almost without a misstep. On the Ravens side, they have looked like Super Bowl contenders at times, too, but have also struggled at times, which accounts for their 1-2 record and their -7 point differential through three games.

It is our policy from here forward in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column to treat the Bills as the best (regular season) team in football in 2024 until proven otherwise. That is why Buffalo would have covered this spread even if it was flipped.

Pick: Bills 35-28

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-1)

This is a 0-3 Titans team against a 1-2 Dolphins team without its starting QB that should be 0-3 if not for a Travis Etienne fumble in Week 1. Both these teams are on the brink of cementing their contention for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, so thank goodness there are two Monday night games this week!

In the end, this is Mike McDaniel’s last stand here. The darling play-caller of the NFL the last two seasons needs to re-earn his street cred here by getting a flawed but still talented offense to produce something without Tua Tagovailoa. He also needs his defense to help out by getting Will Levis to do Will Levis things that doom his team. If they can, they can get the win.

Pick: Dolphins 16-10

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

The final game in the NFL Week 4 picks, predictions, and odds column is the late Monday night affair between the Lions and the Seahawks. This is a sweet matchup between two teams that should see each other again in the playoffs down the line.

This line started at Lions -5.5 and has been bet down to -3.5 as bettors pile in on the 3-0 Seahawks. But while Seattle has been playing well and is legit, the Lions are still the slightly better team. Plus, the Seahawks are a different team on the road, needing overtime to beat the Patriots in New England in Week 2. That’s what the pick is the Lions here, especially if the line ultimately drops under a field goal.

Pick: Lions 30-24

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