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As two veterans looking to slot themselves into the UFC light heavyweight title picture, Nikita Krylov (30-9) and Dominick Reyes (14-4) meet on the main card of UFC 314. It is time to continue our UFC 314 odds series with a Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes prediction and pick.
Krylov, 33, has not fought since March 2024 but enters the matchup on a three-fight win streak, the second-longest of his UFC career. The 39-fight veteran is coming off a first-round triangle choke of Ryan Spann, his first submission win in four years.
Reyes, 35, is four months removed from a second-round TKO of Anthony Smith, a win that capped off a 2-0 year for him in 2024. With back-to-back knockout wins, Reyes is back on track in the division after seemingly being left for dead following a four-fight losing streak that spanned over three years.
Here are the UFC 314 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 314 Odds: Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Odds
Nikita Krylov: -175
Dominick Reyes: +145
Over 1.5 rounds: -145
Under 1.5 rounds: +114
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Why Nikita Krylov Will Win
The majority of the UFC fan base wants to believe that Reyes is “back.” Consecutive knockout victories fed that narrative, but wins over Dustin Jacoby and a retiring Anthony Smith are far from encouraging. Krylov is not the exciting knockout artist that Reyes is but is simply a beacon of consistency in the division's top 10. Unlike Jacoby or Smith, a win over Krylov would solidify the notion that Reyes is still a top-10-level fighter.
Although he has 12 knockout wins to his name, Krylov is one of the most grappling-heavy fighters in the division. A pure striker, Reyes has never been submitted but has yet to be truly tested in that area. Reyes has only faced one grappling-based fighter in his UFC career, Chris Weidman, who moved up from middleweight to take the fight. Eleven years into his professional MMA career, Reyes is still just a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt, according to his profile on UFC.com.
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Even without the threat of a takedown, Krylov can hurt Reyes on the feet, which is where he has been more vulnerable recently. Four of Reyes' last five opponents have hurt him, including three brutal knockout losses. Of Krylov's seven UFC losses, six have been against superior grapplers. Reyes simply does not have that to his game.
Why Dominick Reyes Will Win
It is hard to tell if Reyes is fully back to the best version of himself with the nature of his recent wins. However, before his infamous four-fight losing streak, Reyes was a uniquely powerful and athletic striker, unlike any the UFC light heavyweight division had seen in the past several years. Of his eight UFC wins, Reyes has five knockdowns and five KO/TKO victories.
Though Krylov is known for his durable chin, he does not have the best defensive technique. In his lengthy UFC career, Krylov has just a 44 percent striking defense, ranking near the bottom of the division. He absorbs just 2.47 significant strikes per minute but is prone to getting touched up from a distance when he is not securing takedowns.
For most of his career, Krylov has managed to evade the majority of the hardest hitters in the light heavyweight division. Reyes does not have the heaviest hands in the division but is one of the most athletic and explosive strikers the weight class has to offer. Defending 82 percent of takedowns in his UFC career, no fighter has held him down for longer than 1:41. Krylov would likely have to keep him down for over seven minutes to win this fight across three rounds.
Final Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick
Both Krylov and Reyes are proven finishers, but neither has a style that can truly exploit the weaknesses of the other. Though not a true “striker vs. grappler” matchup, Krylov does his best work on the ground while Reyes earns his paychecks with his striking. However, Krylov has only been knocked out once, while Reyes has never been submitted.
Even though Krylov likes to strike in moments, he is a grappler at heart and is aware that his best path to victory in this fight is with his wrestling. Reyes' takedown defense has been stellar thus far, but he has yet to face a grappler as good as Krylov. While most of the Ukrainian's losses have come by submission, they tend to be against opponents who are simply better grapplers than he is, which Reyes is not.
With just a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt, Reyes is a competent wrestler but an insufficient grappler if Krylov can place him on his back. Still, despite most of Krylov's victories coming in round one, Reyes' durability issues are with his chin and not his grappling defense. Reyes' takedown defense is at its best in the opening frame, where he should be able to use his superior athleticism to keep his distance. With both fighters neutralizing each other's strengths, expect a longer bout than both men are typically used to.
Final Nikita Krylov-Dominick Reyes Prediction & Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-145)
