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The NBA Playoffs continue, and the Indiana Pacers will be hoping to head back to Indiana with a 3-1 lead after getting blown in Game 3 when they take on the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 4 Sunday. It's time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series with a Pacers-Bucks prediction and pick.
The Bucks and Pacers clash in a pivotal Game 4 Sunday night, with Milwaukee looking to even the series at home after a resounding 117-101 Game 3 win. Gary Trent Jr. and Giannis Antetokounmpo each poured in 37 points, powering a huge second-half surge and locking down Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton defensively. Damian Lillard will look to bounce back after a quiet Game 3, while Indiana leans on Pascal Siakam’s consistent production and Haliburton’s playmaking. With the Bucks favored by 4.5 points, expect a high-energy battle as Milwaukee aims to protect home court and knot the series at two apiece.
Here are the Pacers-Bucks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Pacers-Bucks Game 4 Odds
Indiana Pacers: +4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +154
Milwaukee Bucks: -4.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -184
Over: 226.5 (-108)
Under: 226.5 (-112)
How To Watch Bucks vs. Pacers NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT
TV: TNT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Pacers Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Indiana Pacers are well-equipped to win or at least cover the 4.5-point spread against the Milwaukee Bucks in Sunday’s Game 4 matchup. Indiana’s offense has been a consistent force, averaging 117.4 points per game-outpacing Milwaukee’s defensive average by more than four points. The Pacers have shown they can thrive as underdogs, winning 45.2% of games in that role this season, and they’re 8-2 overall in their last 10 games, with a solid 5-5 record against the spread in that stretch. Their ability to score in bunches, led by Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton, has been a major factor, and Indiana is 38-17 when they eclipse the 113-point mark, a threshold they’re likely to reach given Milwaukee’s recent defensive struggles.
Despite the Bucks’ Game 3 surge, which featured hot shooting from Gary Trent Jr. and dominance from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Pacers’ track record in this series remains strong, they’ve won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings and have already proven they can win in Milwaukee. The Bucks have also been inconsistent at covering larger spreads, while Indiana’s balanced attack and pace can keep them within striking distance, even if Milwaukee’s stars get hot. With both teams largely healthy and the Pacers’ offense humming, expect Indiana to keep this game close and potentially pull off another upset, making them a strong pick to cover the spread on Sunday.
Why the Bucks Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Milwaukee Bucks are positioned to win and cover the 4.5-point spread against the Indiana Pacers in Sunday’s Game 4, thanks to their recent surge in form and strong home-court advantage. Milwaukee has been favored in 55 games this season and has won 67.3% of those matchups, demonstrating their reliability when expected to win. The Bucks have also covered the spread in four consecutive games and boast a 7-3 record against the spread over their last 10 contests, indicating they are peaking at the right time. Offensively, Milwaukee averages 115.5 points per game-just above what Indiana typically allows-and when the Bucks score more than 115.1 points, they are 31-8-1 against the spread and 34-6 overall, highlighting their ability to capitalize when their offense is clicking.
At home, the Bucks are even more formidable, with a 23-18-1 record against the spread and a 23-10 mark as a moneyline favorite. Their shooting efficiency (48.6% from the field) outpaces Indiana’s defensive field goal percentage, suggesting Milwaukee can exploit the Pacers’ defense. With Damian Lillard healthy and Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the charge, the Bucks’ star power and playoff experience should allow them to control the tempo and limit Indiana’s high-octane offense. Expect Milwaukee’s balanced attack and defensive adjustments to help them secure a win and cover the spread, evening the series as they protect their home floor.
Final Pacers-Bucks Prediction & Pick
Expect the Milwaukee Bucks to win and cover the 4.5-point spread in Sunday’s Game 4 against the Indiana Pacers. After a dominant Game 3 performance, Milwaukee’s momentum is undeniable, especially with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard both healthy and producing at a high level. The Bucks’ home-court advantage and recent efficiency against the spread-covering in four straight games suggest they’re peaking at the right time. While Indiana’s offense is potent, Milwaukee’s defensive adjustments and superior playoff experience should limit the Pacers’ scoring bursts. Look for the Bucks to control the tempo, capitalize on their offensive mismatches, and pull away late, securing a win by at least five points to even the series at 2-2.
Final Pacers-Bucks Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Bucks 4.5 (-110), Under: 226.5 (-112)
