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The MLB season continues as the San Diego Padres look to pick up the win on the road in New York when they take on the Yankees in their series finale on Wednesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Padres-Yankees prediction and pick.
Padres-Yankees Projected Starters
Dylan Cease vs. Max Fried
Dylan Cease – (1-2) with a 5.61 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP
Last Start: Cease didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 9-4 victory over the Pirates after giving up two runs on three hits and three walks while striking out three batters in four innings.
2024 Road Splits: Cease has not been good on the road to start the season, where he is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.92 WHIP across 13 innings.
Max Fried – (6-0) with a 1.01 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP
Last Start: Fried picked up the win in Friday's 3-0 victory over the Rays, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out six over seven scoreless innings.
2024 Home Splits: Fried has been dominant at home, where he is 3-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.07 WHIP across 24.1 innings.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Padres-Yankees Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-137)
Moneyline: +146
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+114)
Moneyline: -174
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
How To Watch Padres vs. Yankees
Article Continues Below
Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT
TV: MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Padres Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres are well-positioned to topple Max Fried and the Yankees on Wednesday, thanks to a combination of high-upside pitching and a red-hot offense. While Cease’s 2025 numbers (1-2, 5.61 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) don’t jump off the page, his elite strikeout ability (39 K in 33.2 IP) gives him the tools to silence even the most potent lineups when he’s on his game. Cease has shown flashes of dominance in the past, and his ability to miss bats is a key asset against a Yankees offense that leans heavily on a few stars. If Cease can harness his command, he’s capable of matching zeros with Fried and giving the Padres a chance to win late.
Backing Cease is a Padres lineup that’s been among the league’s best, led by Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s slashing .340 with 8 home runs and 17 RBIs. The Padres have surged to first in the NL West behind a balanced attack that can manufacture runs and hit for power. With Tatis setting the tone and a deep supporting cast, San Diego has the offensive firepower to challenge Fried, even with his sparkling 1.01 ERA and undefeated record. If the Padres can force Fried into deep counts or get into the Yankees’ bullpen, their chances to pull off a statement win increase significantly.
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
Max Fried and the New York Yankees are in an excellent position to defeat Dylan Cease and the Padres on Wednesday, thanks to Fried’s dominant form and a Yankees offense firing on all cylinders. Fried has been nearly untouchable in 2025, boasting a perfect 6-0 record with a minuscule 1.01 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP over 44.2 innings. He was recently named AL Pitcher of the Month, underscoring his status as one of the league’s elite arms. Fried’s ability to work deep into games and limit baserunners gives the Yankees a significant edge, especially against a Padres lineup that has been inconsistent and is still waiting for key bats to return to full strength.
Backing Fried is a Yankees offense that ranks among the best in baseball, leading the league in home runs and ranking second in runs scored. With a team slash line of .262/.346/.470, the Yankees have shown they can produce against any pitching staff. In contrast, Cease has struggled on the road this season, posting a 9.00 ERA in away games and allowing plenty of traffic on the bases. If the Yankees’ hitters can stay patient and force Cease into high-stress innings, New York’s combination of elite pitching and relentless offense should carry them to victory at home.
Final Padres-Yankees Prediction & Pick
Max Fried and the New York Yankees are poised to beat Dylan Cease and the Padres on Wednesday. Fried’s dominant 1.01 ERA and flawless 6-0 record highlight his ability to stifle opposing offenses, especially at home. Meanwhile, the Yankees boast one of MLB’s most powerful lineups, leading in home runs and runs scored, making them a tough matchup for Cease, who has struggled on the road with a 9.00 ERA. Expect Fried to pitch deep into the game, keeping the Padres’ bats in check, while New York’s offense applies constant pressure. The Yankees’ balanced attack and Fried’s ace performance should secure a solid victory.
Final Padres-Yankees Prediction & Pick: New York Yankees ML (-174), Over 8 (-106)
