UFC Shanghai: Nassourdine Imavov versus Caio Borralho continues on the prelims fight between Sam Patterson and Trey Waters in the welterweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Patterson-Waters prediction and pick.
Sam Patterson (13-2-1) rebounded impressively since suffering a first-round KO loss to Yanal Ashmouz at UFC 286, his most recent defeat. He answered with a first-round submission of Kiefer Crosbie and a stunning KO win over Danny Barlow, showcasing finishing ability as he enters UFC Paris against Trey Waters.
Trey Waters (9-1) steps into UFC Paris on a two-fight winning streak, having outpointed Billy Ray Goff and Josh Quinlan by unanimous decision in his last two bouts. His only professional loss came via first-round submission to Gabriel Bonfim on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Sam Patterson-Trey Waters odds
Sam Patterson: -180
Trey Waters: +150
Over 1.5 rounds: -188
Under 1.5 rounds: +145
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Why Sam Patterson will win
- Last Fight: (W) Danny Barlow – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 12 (5 KO/TKO/7 SUB)
Sam Patterson enters UFC Paris with a proven finishing ability, boasting seven first-round stoppages across his 13-2-1 record. His lethal submission skills and newly added knockout power have made him a dangerous threat in the welterweight division.
Patterson’s offensive pace and improved striking defense make him a stylistic nightmare for Waters. Sam has also crucially reduced the number of strikes he absorbs while doubling his own offensive output, showing that he’s no longer a defensive liability on the feet.
On the ground, Patterson’s perfect takedown accuracy and elite submission IQ give him several avenues to victory if he’s able to initiate grappling exchanges. His average fight time of under four minutes signals his intent to overwhelm opponents early and control the action before they can fully implement their game.
Meanwhile, Waters has never finished an opponent in the UFC, relying mostly on striking and decision wins. Patterson’s relentless pressure combined with his high-octane grappling gives him the advantage and makes him the likely pick to finish Waters within the distance at UFC Paris.
Why Trey Waters will win
- Last Fight: (W) Billy Ray Goff – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 6 (3 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Trey Waters has a clear path to victory at UFC Paris thanks to his striking volume, size, and defensive acumen. Standing six-foot-five, Waters uses his length and a high-output jab to keep opponents at range, landing 6.4 significant strikes per minute—more than double Patterson’s output.
Defensively, Waters excels with an 86% takedown defense rate, making him an extremely tough target for Patterson’s grappling-heavy attack. If he keeps the fight standing, Waters’ crisp jabs and counter shots can accumulate damage and frustrate Patterson over three rounds.
Waters’ experience in winning decisions also works in his favor, as he consistently goes the distance and maintains composure under pressure. His superior defense, combined with excellent cardio, allows him to push a pace late into fights while rarely making mistakes on the feet.
Should Patterson struggle to land effective takedowns, Waters’ technical striking and reach will dictate the fight’s rhythm, enabling him to out-point Patterson to a decision on the judges’ scorecards—or possibly score a late TKO if fatigue sets in.
Final Sam Patterson-Trey Waters prediction & pick
This welterweight tilt between Sam Patterson and Trey Waters looks set to deliver action, but Patterson’s dynamic skill set gives him a tangible edge heading into UFC Paris. Both fighters bring size and length, but Patterson is more comfortable in chaos, possessing both finishing power on the feet and a proven submission arsenal.
Patterson’s recent form is especially impressive: he’s riding the momentum of three consecutive finishes, blending sharp striking combinations with sneaky grappling entries. While his chin was exposed in the Ashmouz fight, he responded by tightening up his defense, showing improved head movement and timing in recent wins. Trey Waters, on the other hand, tends to rely on his reach and jab but has shown defensive gaps—especially when pressured or forced to stuff takedowns.
Waters' best chance is to keep the fight at range and chip away with volume, but Patterson’s ability to close the distance, mix his attacks, and force grappling exchanges means Waters will be in danger any time the action gets inside. Patterson is also the more active finisher and appears to have cleaner cardio based on recent activity and fight pace. Add in Waters’ ring rust and occasional struggles under heavy pressure, and it’s easy to see Patterson overwhelming him as the fight progresses.
Expect Patterson to edge the early striking exchanges and eventually force a mistake from Waters—either finding a submission or pouring on damage for a late stoppage in Paris.
Final Sam Patterson-Trey Waters Prediction & Pick: Sam Patterson (-180), Over 1.5 Rounds (-188)
