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The Phoenix Suns (29-33) and Denver Nuggets (40-22) meet for the fourth and final time of the regular season at the Ball Arena on Friday night. It's time to continue our NBA odds series with a Suns-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Suns continue to struggle late in the year, going just 3-7 in their last 10 games. However, they are an improved 2-1 in their last three and are coming off a 119-117 win over the Los Angeles Clippers. Phoenix now hits the road for the first time since Feb. 25 after four consecutive home games.
The Nuggets are coming off a dominant February, in which they went 10-2. Since ending a nine-game win streak, Denver has alternated wins and losses in their last six games. They most recently picked up a 116-110 win over the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night after returning home from a four-game road trip.
Here are the Suns-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Odds: Suns-Nuggets Odds
Phoenix Suns: +7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +235
Denver Nuggets: -7.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -290
Over: 238 (-110)
Under: 238 (-110)
How To Watch Suns vs. Nuggets
Time: 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT
TV: ESPN
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Suns Could Cover the Spread/Win
Article Continues Below
While injuries have decimated the Suns down the stretch, they appear on track to be at full strength for this game. Bradley Beal is the lone starter on the injury report but practiced in full on Thursday, a clear indication of his status. The Nuggets, meanwhile, could still be without Aaron Gordon, who missed the past three games. Gordon's 112.5 defensive rating leads the team among players averaging more than 20 minutes per game.
Since re-inserting Beal into the starting lineup, the Suns are an improved 3-4 straight up and against the spread. Despite their struggles, they still possess the offensive firepower to beat any team at any given moment with a top-10 offensive rating. Phoenix also ranks in the top 10 in three-point attempts, percentage and makes per game. Beal provides an additional shooting threat that Ryann Dunn did not.
Since losing their nine-game win streak, the Nuggets are just 3-4 straight-up and 2-5 ATS. Their elite offensive production has seemingly hit a rough patch lately, as Denver averages just 115 points per game in its last six outings, a decrease from its season-long average of 121.
Why the Nuggets Could Cover the Spread/Win
The Suns are currently putting together one of the worst against-the-spread records in NBA betting history. Their 22-39 ATS record on the year is equally as bad at home as it is on the road, where they are just 12-19. Over its past 10 games, Phoenix is just 4-6 ATS. With rumors about the futures of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Beal circling social media, the Suns seem to be more focused on the offseason than their remaining schedule.
Over their last 15 games, the Nuggets have looked the best they have all season and are playing as good as any team in the league. During that time, Denver's 122.9 offensive rating ranks third in the league, behind just the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers. Overall, the Nuggets are third in points per game, second in effective field goal percentage and third in three-point percentage.
Unsurprisingly, the Nikola Jokic-powered offense ranks first in the NBA in assists and fastbreak points per game. The Suns rank in the bottom half of the league defensively in both categories. They are particularly poor at allowing points in transition, where they rank 25th.
Final Suns-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
While the Suns continue to ride with Bol Bol in the starting lineup, the fan-favorite unicorn lasted just nine minutes against the Clippers. It resulted in an upset win, proving the gimmick should be over. If there is any team that knows how to exploit Bol's glaring weaknesses, it's the Nuggets, with whom the big man spent the first three years of his career.
However, regardless of the win, Bol was not the only Phoenix starter to struggle against the Clippers. Every starter except for Kevin Durant posted a plus-minus of -9 or worse, as the Suns' bench led them to a victory. That recipe will not work against Denver, who allows the fourth-fewest bench points in the league. The grossly overrated Mike Budenholzer continues to go with a hot-hand approach in his unorganized offense to negative results.
Defensively, the Suns figure to struggle against the Nuggets' fast-paced offense. Denver ranks first in the league in points in the paint and in transition, two categories Phoenix is in the bottom 10 at defending. The Nuggets are 14-10-1 ATS as home favorites this season, while the Suns are just 5-9 ATS as road underdogs.
Final Suns-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Nuggets -7.5 (-110)
