Subscribe
Follow Us
In search of his third consecutive title defense, Teofimo Lopez (21-1) puts the WBO super lightweight belt on the line against Arnold Barboza Jr. (32-0). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Teofimo Lopez-Arnold Barboza Jr. prediction and pick.
Lopez, 27, is riding a five-fight win streak into this matchup since suffering an upset loss to George Kambosos Jr. in 2021. Over the past three years, he has moved up to the super lightweight division, claiming a belt in a second division with a dominant win over Josh Taylor.
Lopez has picked up subsequent title defenses over Jermaine Ortiz and Steve Claggett, his last win coming in June 2024.
Barboza, 33, has slowly crept up the ranks to become an undefeated title challenger. While he lacks the knockout power or highlight reel to excite fans, his consistency culminated with a hard-fought win over Jack Catterall in February.
Now 12 years into his professional career, Barboza gets his first crack at a world title less than three months after winning the WBO interim super lightweight belt with his victory over Catterall.
Here are the Teofimo Lopez-Arnold Barboza Jr. odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Teofimo Lopez-Arnold Barboza Jr. Odds
Teofimo Lopez: -260
Arnold Barboza Jr.: +194
Over 10.5 Rounds: -550
Under 10.5 Rounds: +350
How to Watch Teofimo Lopez vs. Arnold Barboza Jr.
Time: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT
Fight ring walk time (estimated): 6:30 p.m. ET / 3:30 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Teofimo Lopez Will Win
Since his loss to Kambosos, fans continue to wonder which version of Lopez will show up in each fight. If his prefight physique is any indication, Lopez is in the best shape of his career entering this bout with Barboza. However, against Barboza, Lopez will face his biggest test since returning from his short-lived retirement in 2023.
Backed by his power, precision, and chin, Lopez is easily the most aggressive fighter Barboza will face. Defensively, Lopez can get caught with his hands down, but Barboza, who has just 11 knockout victories in his 32 professional fights, does not have the power to truly threaten him.
Barboza racked up wins behind his fundamentals and technical prowess, but Lopez has broken down many similar fighters with his pace, pressure, and power.
As he persistently tries to find a new promotion after publicly disputing with TopRank, a big performance could officially land Lopez a deal with Matchroom Boxing. Doing so gives him the best chance of developing the star power he has lacked in his career. Everything is on the line for Lopez in this fight, and he seems fully aware.
Why Arnold Barboza Jr. Will Win
Unlike Lopez, Barboza never fought at lightweight and likely never could. He will only be one inch taller but will have a four-inch reach advantage with the slightly wider frame. The size and length advantage favor Barboza, who likes to keep his distance and frequently pops his jab.
While Lopez seeks a firefight, Barboza rarely allows that style to consume him. Footwork and distance management will be key for Barboza, who can frustrate Lopez with his jab and straight punches. Barboza does not seem to have the power to hurt Lopez the way Sandor Martin did, but the champion tends to get sloppy with his technique once he begins to feel frustrated.
When Lopez struggles to find his range and timing, his combinations tend to fall apart. He turns to throwing one big, telegraphed shot at a time. Barboza has the ability to force him into that trap and make the fight a lot muddier than it can be. If this bout turns into a midrange point-fight, Barboza will be entirely in his element and can run away with it on cruise control.
Final Teofimo Lopez-Arnold Barboza Jr. Prediction & Pick
It is always hard to tell if Lopez is ever ‘back,' but there is a good chance he opens this highly anticipated fight card with a bang.
Barboza is a solid contender, but his one-punch-at-a-time approach has not historically been successful against Lopez. With just 11 knockouts in his 32 wins, Barboza also lacks the power to exploit Lopez's defensive openings the way some have previously done.
If Barboza can stick-and-move, he can win rounds against the champion. It is just hard to imagine him keeping that up for too long against an aggressive, stalking power puncher like Lopez. Vasiliy Lomachenko struggled with the power and pressure of Lopez early in their fight, making it hard to imagine Barboza will have any more success.
There is always the possibility that Lopez comes out flat, but he seems to be leaving no stone unturned in his preparation. Lopez wants the big finish to get back on track, but Barboza's safe approach makes it hard to catch him clean.
Barboza has never faced the type of power Lopez has, but he has yet to be officially knocked down in his career. Lopez can still stop him, but this has the feel of a 12-round masterclass from the champion.
Final Teofimo Lopez-Arnold Barboza Jr. Fury Prediction & Pick: Teofimo Lopez by decision (-120)
