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It's the Subway series as the New York Yankees visit the New York Mets. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Yankees-Mets prediction, pick, and how-to watch.
The Yankees lost two of three over the weekend to the Red Sox, but the series was tight. All three games were decided by two runs or less, with two of them decided by just a single run. The Yankees have won just four of their last ten, but are still 38-29 on the year, nine games back of the Rays in the division. The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge, who is out with a toe injury.
For the Mets, it has been a struggle as of late. They lost two of three to the Pirates, and have lost eight of their last ten games. They are struggling to the point they signed Luke Voit to a minor league deal after their star slugger, Pete Alonso was injured. Regardless of record, there are always fireworks when these two teams face off.
Here are the Yankees-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Mets Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+168)
New York Mets: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
How To Watch Yankees vs. Mets
TV: TBS/YES/WPIX
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:10 PM ET/ 4:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
The Yankees' offense, for all their scoring and winning, has been fairly average this year. They are 13th in runs scored this year, while also being 13th in slugging percentage. Meanwhile, they sit 23rd in batting average and 27th in on-base percentage. Making matters worse, Aaron Judge leads them in batting average, home runs, and RBIs this year, and he is out. Run production has been hard to come by as of late for the Yankees, and in the last week, the leader in RBIs is Willie Calhoun.
Calhoun is hitting just .200 this month and has driven in just four runs. All four of them have come in the last week and come off of two home runs, while he has scored four times. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has also been hitting better as of late. While not an everyday player, he is hitting .280 on the month, with one double. He only has one RBI but has scored three times this month.
Luis Severino will be on the hill for the Yankees today. He is 0-1 with a 5.75 ERA on the season. He has only made two starts this year, but it is already a tale of two seasons. In his first two starts he went 11.1 innings and gave up three runs, two of them earned. He had a 1.59 ERA in those two outings. In his second two, he went just nine innings, giving up 17 hits, and a 11.00 ERA.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
The Met's offense has been struggling. They are in the bottom half of the league in all major categories. They are 16th in runs scored, 17th in on-base percentage, 18th in slugging, and 21st in batting average. Even when they are scoring, they have not been winning lately. They scored seven runs against the Pirates in one game and still lost by seven. They scored ten against the Braves and lost 13-10. Even before the losing streak this was an issue. Against the Rockies, they scored 10 runs and seven runs but lost both games.
With Pete Alonso out Franciso Lindor will need to pick up even more of the burden. He has struggled this month. He is hitting just .171 this month with two home runs and three RBIs. Brandon Nimmo is another option to pick up the load, but he is hitting just .206 this month. He is driving in more runs, with five in the month, but only had one home run. In the last week, only one guy has shown major power. That is Francisco Alvarez. He has four home runs in the last week, with six RBIs. Meanwhile, he has been all or nothing this month. He only has six hits over the entire month, batting .188. Four of the six have left the yard, while he has driven in runs on the other two.
Max Scherzer heads to the mound today against the Yankees. He comes in with a 5-2 record and a 3.71 ERA. Last time out he gave up 11 hits over 5.2 innings and five earned runs. This has happened to Mad Max over the year. He has three starts this year in which he has given up five or more runs. He also has three starts this year in which he has not given up a single run, plus two more in which he has given up just one.
Final Yankees-Mets Prediction & Pick
Scherzer has been a little hit-and-miss. Most of the time he had been solid, but every so often he struggled. The same can be said for Severino. He has two great stars and two horrible ones. With that, we look at the offensive production. The Yankees have been better over the season, but the Mets have been better as of late, even with poor results. The best way to go at this game is the run total. Severino has been good in 50% of his starts. Scherzer has been solid in six of nine. Meaning the chances of them both being solid at the same time is roughly 40%. With that, take the over in this one.
Final Yankees-Met Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (-118)
