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The MLB season continues as the Yankees look to pick up the win on the road in Tampa when they take on the Rays in the third game of their series on Saturday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Yankees-Rays prediction and pick.
Yankees-Rays Projected Starters
Carlos Carrasco vs. Shane Baz
Carlos Carrasco – (2-1) with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP
Last Start: Carrasco allowed a run on one hit and two walks over five innings Monday, striking out four and earning a win over the Royals.
2025 Road Splits: Carrasco didn't fare well in his only road start this season, where he gave up four earned runs on six hits while only striking out three across four innings against the Tigers.
Shane Baz – (2-0) with a 1.42 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP
Last Start: Baz earned the win Monday versus Boston, striking out 11 over six one-run innings. He allowed two hits and no walks.
2025 Home Splits: Baz has been dominant at home in all three of his starts this season, where he has posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Rays Odds
New York Yankees: +1.5 (-162)
Moneyline: +120
Tampa Bay Rays: -1.5 (+134)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 9.5 (+100)
Under: 9.5 (-122)
How To Watch Yankees vs. Rays
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
TV: MLB.TV
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why The Yankees Will Cover The Spread/Win
Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees are primed to take down Shane Baz and the Rays on Saturday, thanks to a timely resurgence from the veteran right-hander and a surging New York offense. Carrasco, fresh off his best start as a Yankee, delivered five innings of one-hit ball in a 4-1 win over the Royals, showcasing a sharp changeup that generated a 50% whiff rate and kept hitters off balance. Despite early-season struggles, Carrasco’s ability to bounce back under pressure, retiring seven straight after a solo homer, demonstrates the poise and experience New York’s injury-riddled rotation needs right now. His recent command and pitch mix, especially the effective use of his changeup, give him a strong foundation to neutralize Tampa Bay’s lineup.
Backing Carrasco is a Yankees offense that’s finding its stride, as evidenced by their four-homer outburst in his last start. With power bats heating up and defensive standouts like Jasson Domínguez making key plays, the Yankees are showing they can support their pitching staff on both sides of the ball. While Shane Baz is a talented young arm, New York’s combination of veteran pitching, timely hitting, and defensive excellence gives them the edge to secure another victory and maintain momentum in the AL East race.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
Shane Baz and the Tampa Bay Rays are set up to topple Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees on Saturday, thanks to Baz’s electric form and a Rays lineup that’s shown it can strike quickly. Baz enters the matchup with a stellar 1.42 ERA and a 2-0 record, fresh off a dominant six-inning, 11-strikeout performance against Boston. His advanced metrics project continued success, with strikeout rates above 22% and a WHIP hovering near 1.1, suggesting he can keep the Yankees’ powerful bats in check. Baz’s ability to generate swings and misses, limit hard contact, and avoid free passes gives Tampa Bay a clear edge on the mound.
Offensively, the Rays have power threats like Junior Caminero, who recently homered against New York, and Jonathan Aranda, who’s batting near .400. Tampa Bay’s lineup is disciplined and opportunistic, capable of capitalizing on Carrasco’s inconsistencies, he’s posted a 5.94 ERA this season and has struggled with command in several outings. The Rays also benefit from playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field, where they’re growing more comfortable despite the unusual circumstances. With Baz’s high ceiling and a lineup poised to exploit any lapses, the Rays are primed to bounce back and hand the Yankees a tough loss on Saturday.
Final Yankees-Rays Prediction & Pick
The Yankees and Rays square off Saturday in Tampa with both teams looking to build momentum in the AL East. New York enters with a 12-7 record and a recent 6-3 win, fueled by Ben Rice’s four-hit night and a power surge that’s seen them hit 27 home runs in their 12 victories. Carlos Carrasco is coming off his best start as a Yankee, showing improved command and a sharp changeup, while the lineup remains dangerous even with key injuries. The Rays, led by hot hitters like Kameron Misner and Jonathan Aranda, boast a strong .333 team OBP and have been tough at home. Expect a close contest, but the Yankees’ timely hitting gives them a slight edge.
Final Yankees-Rays Prediction & Pick: Yankees ML (+120), Over 9.5 (+100)
