The success of the Cleveland Browns in 2023 is among the hardest to predict of any NFL team this season. The team has an above-average roster and a former Pro Bowl quarterback, but Deshaun Watson looked far from the player he was in 2020 during the six games he played last season. Kevin Stefanski started his Browns coaching tenure with an 11-5 record and a playoff win in 2020, but the team has regressed in each of the last two years. In one of football's toughest divisions, what does 2023 hold for Cleveland? Here are four Browns predictions for 2023:

 

4. Myles Garrett wins DPOY

Myles Garrett is the best player on the Browns. He's a former No. 1 pick, a 4x All-Pro and one of the NFL's most dominant pass rushers. However, Garrett has never won the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. He finished fifth in 2022.

In every season Garrett has started more than 10 games, he has made an All-Pro team. He has recorded 10+ sacks in every year since his rookie year, notching 16 in both 2021 and 2022.

Garrett shows no signs of slowing down. In fact, he might be getting better. According to FanDuel, he has the second highest odds to win DPOY at +600, behind only the Dallas Cowboys' Micah Parsons (+450).

Garrett will record 17+ sacks in 2023, and this will finally be the year he breaks through and wins the NFL's most prestigious defensive award.

 

3. Deshaun Watson throws for 4,000 yards

Deshaun Watson is the biggest question mark on the Browns, and his level of play directly translates to the amount of success Cleveland will have this year. There's just a lot of factors at play here.

Despite Watson's off-the-field problems, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL before those came to light. He led the Houston Texans to back-to-back winning seasons in 2018-19, and led the NFL in total passing with 4,823 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2020, all on the way to three straight Pro Bowls.

That is why the Browns gave up so much to trade for Watson and then inked him to a fully-guaranteed $230 million contract before his legal issues were even settled. If that 2020 version of Watson as a football player still exists, the Browns could be very good. However, the $230 million in guaranteed money might disincentivize Watson from practicing or playing hard enough to get back to that level.

Watson is still only 27, and his poor play in 2022 may possibly be chalked up to nearly a two-year absence from the football field. Amari Cooper is still a legit No. 1 receiver, and Elijah Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku fill out the pass-catching options pretty nicely. Cleveland still has an elite run game and offensive line as well.

The talent Watson flashed in college at Clemson and with the Texans early in his career is still in there somewhere. Expect Cleveland's run-game to open up the pass game enough for Watson to regain his rhythm, and he'll throw for more than 4,000 yards this season. Whether or not that's good enough for a Pro Bowl/All-Pro selection is anyone's guess in a stacked AFC quarterback conference.

 

2. Browns finish third in the AFC North

Based on the premise that Watson will become an elite quarterback once again, the Browns are going to win a lot of games. (If Watson is bad, the rest of these predictions are null.)

The Browns offensive line projects as the second-best in the NFL for the 2023 season, according to PFF. This unit was the foundation of this team's success in 2020, with Baker Mayfield at quarterback. With Nick Chubb's playmaking ability out of the backfield and some solid offensive weapons, all that's missing is quality quarterbacking, which Cleveland will finally have.

Defensively, Myles Garrett is as impactful an individual force as there is in football. Za'Darius Smith also joins this front seven from the Minnesota Vikings, with whom he had 10 sacks in 2022. The secondary still has talent led by Greg Newsome II and Denzel Ward, who's in Cleveland for the long haul.

The Browns also have the most remaining cap space in the NFL. That appears to be reserved for getting under next year's salary cap, but the front office can add an impact player if it wishes.

However, as talented as the Browns may or may not be, the AFC North is a brutal division. The Pittsburgh Steelers went 9-8 last year with a rookie quarterback, and their best player, T.J. Watt, missed seven games. A Mike Tomlin team has never finished with a losing record, and the roster it better than it was in 2022. Beating the Steelers will be no walk in the park.

The Baltimore Ravens have struggled with health the past two seasons, but they will be competitive in 2023. The Ravens reloaded the offensive by drafting WR Zay Flowers in the first round and signing WR Odell Beckham Jr. to make life easier for Lamar Jackson. The Cincinnati Bengals have been in the AFC Championship Game in each of the last two years and don't appear to be slowing down behind Joe Burrow's excellence and some great wide receivers.

Expect the Browns to cover their projected win total of 9.5 but finish third behind the Bengals and Steelers.

 

1. Browns miss the playoffs

10 wins is usually good enough for a playoff appearance. Every team that won at least 10 games in 2021 and 2022 made the playoffs. However, the AFC is so competitive this year that some great teams will have to miss out.

Assume all of the divisional favorites win their respective divisions and earn playoff spots. That's the Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Bengals. There will then be three remaining playoff spots for a whole bunch of teams that are good enough to make the playoffs. Only three of the Ravens, Browns, Steelers, Jets, Chargers, and Dolphins can make it. Then there's still teams with outside chances like the Patriots and the Broncos.

The Browns might win 10 games, but they won't win their division. The AFC will be too strong, and the Browns will narrowly miss the playoffs.