The new-look Carolina Panthers have their sights set on making a big leap in 2023 as they face one of the NFL's easiest schedules. Below, we continue our NFL odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Carolina Panthers.
After an abysmal 1-4 start last year, Carolina fired coach Matt Rhule, who finished with a record of 11-27. Many expected the team to immediately falter, especially as Christian McCaffrey was traded a week later. But the scrappy Panthers kept fighting under interim coach Steve Wilks. In addition to pulling off upset wins over the playoff-bound Bucs and Seahawks, Carolina dominated Detroit, one of the hottest teams in the league at the time.
Despite being held back by a game of musical chairs at quarterback with Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold that produced the fifth-fewest yards through the air in the league last year, the Panthers ground game delivered with the 10th-most rushing yards behind an up-and-coming offensive line that also gave up the 11th-fewest sacks.
Carolina's defense was middle-of-the-pack against the run last season and struggled through the air, giving up the 10th-most passing yards while tying for the seventh-fewest sacks and sixth-fewest interceptions.
The Panthers hurt their draft stock by winning four of their final six games, but you're never going to convince an NFL coach or player to tank. Nevertheless, the Panthers still ended up striking a blockbuster trade for the No. 1 overall pick with Chicago. Parting ways with star receiver D.J. Moore in the trade was a tough pill to swallow, but aggressive owner David Tepper and the new Panthers' coaching staff did what was necessary to get their preferred quarterback of the future.
Can the Panthers overcome some of their offseason departures and contend for a playoff spot in the wide-open NFC South? Without further ado, let's take a look at the Panthers' over/under odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NFL Odds: Panthers Over/Under Win Total
Over 7.5 Wins: -114
Under 7.5 Wins: -106
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Why Carolina Could Hit The Under
The future looks bright with rookie quarterback Bryce Young atop the Panthers' depth chart, but there will be some inevitable growing pains, especially early on in the season. Before its Week 7 bye, Carolina clashes with three of last year's playoff teams. That doesn't account for a division battle on Monday Night Football against the favorites in the division, or a road test against one of the hottest teams from the back half of last season, either.
Already an elite processor with excellent field vision, plus athleticism, a quick release, and terrific composure in the pocket, Bryce Young is equipped with the tools to excel as a leading Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.
The continuity along the offensive line will help, but it will take some time for Bryce Young to get on the same page with his weapons. Most of them are also learning a new system and entering their first season in Carolina. How quickly they develop and build chemistry will have a considerable impact on the Panthers' over/under win total.
There will also likely be some hiccups as Carolina transitions to a 3-4 defense under new coordinator Ejiro Evero, who is one of the top minds in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball.
Why Carolina Could Hit The Over
With an overall very favorable schedule, it's easy to see why we're expecting big things from this team in the Panthers’ game-by-game predictions. Even when we account for a brutal four-game losing streak in October, it's hard not to like the over for the Panthers' over/under odds. Much like last year, the Panthers have a great opportunity to heat up as the weather turns cold and put themselves in postseason contention down the stretch as a surprise playoff contender.
Miles Sanders looks to provide a significant upgrade over last year's lead back, D'Onta Foreman. Sanders is coming off a breakout Pro Bowl season with 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. He's also reuniting with his former position coach Duce Staley, which could lead to more opportunities to impact the game as a receiver out of the backfield.
And while the receiver room is currently devoid of superstars, there are a number of viable and proven targets on the Panthers' roster that will allow Bryce Young to start his career off on the right foot.
Adam Thielen is clearly past his prime, as he will turn 33 before the start of the season, but he's a very reliable possession receiver, while D.J. Chark profiles as the opposite—an injury-prone field-stretcher that's never played a full season but offers big-play ability downfield. Both veteran receivers were picked up earlier this spring in free agency.
Jonathan Mingo, who has a legitimate shot to be the rookie receiving yards leader, has already been clicking well with Young in practice. He actually earned the stamp of approval from Panthers legend Steve Smith Sr., who told team owner David Tepper to draft him about an hour before they selected him with the No. 39 overall pick.
One of this year's most underrated draft prospects, Mingo is a very solid blocker, strong route runner, and a prototypical height-weight-speed specimen with elite ball-tracking skills and inside-outside versatility.
Terrace Marshall, a 2021 second-round pick out of LSU, also still has some untapped potential. Meanwhile, Hayden Hurst took over as the top tight end on the Panthers' roster after he received a three-year, $21.75 million contract in mid-March.
And the pieces are really starting to come together on defense. Despite the lack of turnovers last year, the defense should be much improved under Ejiro Evero. The talent and depth stand out in the secondary, as Jaycee Horn, Vonn Bell, Donte Jackson, C.J. Henderson, Jeremy Chinn, and Xavier Woods give the Panthers plenty of flexibility.
Final Panthers Over/Under Prediction & Pick
With a talented, up-and-coming roster and favorable schedule in a weak division, the Panthers are well-equipped to overcome the obstacles on their schedule and contend for the playoffs. It's a seemingly safe bet to take the over on the Panthers' over/under prediction.
Final Panthers Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 7.5 Wins: -114
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