The 2023 NFL Draft was chock-full of potential superstars, especially on offense (eight of the first dozen picks), and at the league's most important position. Below, we continue our NFL odds series with an offensive rookie of the year prediction and pick.
Here are the NFL odds for the rookie class, courtesy of FanDuel
NFL Odds: Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Bijan Robinson: +300
Bryce Young: +430
CJ Stroud: +700
Anthony Richardson: +700
Jahmyr Gibbs: +900
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +900
Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson
Widely regarded as the top running back prospect in at least five years, Robinson looks the part as a complete, three-down back with exceptional vision, power, and breakaway speed. He has virtually no weaknesses in his game, either.
Robinson can plow through defenders with tremendous contact balance or break their ankles with sudden jump cuts. He has an incredibly smooth running style and his receiving skills really stood out on film.
Moreover, Robinson fits the Falcons' wide-zone scheme and physical, ground-and-pound offense like a glove, and he gives Atlanta another much-needed playmaker to pair up with Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Atlanta ran the ball 559 times in 2022, more than any team in the league, despite being led by the likes of fifth-round rookie Tyler Allgeier, second-year undrafted free agent Caleb Huntley, and 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson.
While Allgeier impressed, Robinson brings so much more to the table, and his presence should make life a lot easier for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder, who has just four starts under his belt.
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young
In the last 15 years, seven quarterbacks have won this award. With the exception of Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott, each were one of the first two quarterbacks selected in their draft class.
Drawing comparisons to the likes of Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, and even NBA superstar Stephen Curry, Young is a student of the game that possesses adequate arm strength and plus athleticism to go along with a quick release and pinpoint accuracy. And in terms of his processing, field vision, and composure in the pocket, he's already at an elite level.
Young's poise and decision-making should limit the inevitable rookie growing pains in the Panthers' new-look offense under offensive coordinator Thomas Brown and head coach Frank Reich. And their new batch of weapons—which includes free-agent additions Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, and Hayden Hurst, along with potential rookie receiving yards leader Jonathan Mingo—should keep Young in contention for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Playing in arguably the league's weakest division with a soft schedule doesn't hurt, either.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud actually recruited teammate and third-round receiver Tank Dell to the new-look Texans, showcasing one of the elite traits—his leadership—that made him worth the investment as the No. 2 overall pick.
Stroud is also the best pure pocket passer from this year's class. Despite the narrative about his S2 cognitive test score and his perceived issues under pressure, he boasts an impressive football IQ and has a massive catalog of accurate passes under pressure. While he may need to show more willingness to extend plays with his feet at the next level, Stroud is far from a statue, and he boasts sufficient mobility to shine as an OROY candidate under new Texans OC Bobby Slowik.
Drawing comparisons to the likes of Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Joe Burrow, Stroud is a pro-ready prospect with the desired size, arm strength, pocket movement, and pinpoint ball placement to be a true franchise quarterback.
And like Young, Stroud will be playing in arguably the league's weakest division with a soft schedule.
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson
Equipped with a rocket arm, lightning-quick release, and off-the-charts athleticism, Richardson has the ingredients for long-term success in Shane Steichen's system in Indianapolis.
He has inconsistent mechanics and lacks touch on short passes, primarily because of his limited experience and poor footwork within the pocket. The Gators didn't do him very many favors in terms of his development, especially under former coach Dan Mullen. He’s obviously a work-in-progress but he’s shown week-to-week and even in-game improvements last year.
It's tough to envision Richardson being the Week 1 starter, but he'll certainly be given a real opportunity to earn the job over Gardner Minshew. While Steichen will likely at least dial up some packages to utilize his unique skillset, Richardson will go through plenty of inevitable rookie growing pains behind a work-in-progress offensive line. Richardson arguably has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this year's draft class, but he'll need plenty of time to develop.
Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
The Lions made one of the most initially puzzling decisions of the first round of the draft when they took the second running back of the draft with the No. 12 overall pick after trading down with the Cardinals.
Overall, Detroit had a really strong draft, but there's a general consensus that the team significantly reached on its first pick. Nevertheless, the Lions appear to be entering win-now mode with this pick, and they're in a position to make a major leap this year after emerging as one of the NFL's most dangerous teams down the stretch last season.
A shifty, gliding home-run hitter that runs with zero-to-sixty acceleration and impeccable receiving skills, Gibbs has the versatility and playmaking ability to be a legitimate threat for OROY honors in a dangerous Lions offense, if he gets enough volume. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will have a field day getting him mismatches in space.
Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
In lieu of overhauling the front seven, the Seahawks threw a curveball with the No. 20 overall pick, taking the best player available and one of the five biggest steals from the first round of the draft.
There are questions about his ability to win consistently down the field with below-average top-end speed and whether he’ll be able to operate on the outside with success. Nevertheless, Smith-Njigba should be able to feast from the slot, where his short-area quickness, ball skills, elite body control, and tremendous route-running will create matchup nightmares.
Seattle's finally found its legitimate No. 3 receiving threat to pair with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. But it's an open question whether there will be too many mouths to feed in the offense for JSN to be in the OROY conversation.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner Prediction & Pick
While some of the long-shots offer intrigue for potentially exceptional value, including Jordan Addison (+1600) and Zay Flowers (+2000), Robinson, Young, and Stroud look like the safest bets and still offer really strong value heading into the summer. With Robinson playing in a high-volume role in a perfect scheme behind one of the NFL's best offensive lines, I'll give the edge to the betting favorite and Falcons' dynamic rookie running back.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Winner Prediction & Pick: Bijan Robinson +300
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