There's a ton of excitement and optimism surrounding the Chicago Bears entering the 2023 NFL season. Chicago still faces some questions at a few key positions, but with an overhauled roster that features nine new projected starters on the Bears' depth chart, the team has its sights set on taking the next step as a potentially sneaky playoff contender under third-year quarterback Justin Fields. Below, we continue our NFL odds series with an over/under win total prediction for the Bears.
Limited by a putrid passing attack that generated the fewest passing yards in the NFL, Chicago took a step back in 2022, finishing with a 3-14 record in the first season under coach Matt Eberflus.
Poor pass protection had a lot to do with that, as the Bears surrendered the fourth-most sacks (58) in the league, despite attempting by far the fewest passes (377). To put those numbers into perspective, the next five teams with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL averaged 88.6 more throws and allowed 20 fewer sacks on the season.
The Bears' ground-and-pound approach also played a major factor, as they ran the ball more than any team not named Atlanta and finished with a league-leading 177.3 rushing yards per game (17.3 more per game than runner-up Baltimore) behind Justin Fields, David Montgomery, and Khalil Herbert.
As a result, the Bears consistently kept games close but rarely could close them out, finishing 1-7 in games decided by one score before cratering down the stretch after Thanksgiving.
But Chicago's defense was the bigger issue. It started in the trenches, as the Bears generated the fewest sacks (20) in the NFL, less than half the league average (40.5). The run defense was even worse.
But with so many new pieces, can the Bears quickly build chemistry and emerge as a playoff contender out of the NFC North? Without further ado, let's take a look at the Bears' over/under odds.
Here are the latest NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NFL Odds: Bears Over/Under Win Total
Over 7.5 Wins: -112
Under 7.5 Wins: -108
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Why Chicago Could Hit The Under
Three starters return to Chicago's offensive line, including last year's fifth-round draft steal Braxton Jones, who was named to PFF's All-Rookie team as the NFL's 19th-best offensive tackle.
But there could still be some growing pains from this young unit, especially in the first half of the season, when they face three teams that finished among the league's best in sacks last season in Kansas City, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, as well as the dynamic pass-rushing duos from the Packers (Rashan Gary and Preston Smith), Chargers (Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack) and Raiders (Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, with Tyree Wilson waiting in the wings).
Teven Jenkins was one of the bright spots on the Bears' roster last year after moving from left tackle to right guard in his second season. But he's back on the move again, transitioning to left guard as Cody Whitehair moves to center to replace Sam Mustipher, who is now competing for the backup role in Baltimore.
While we're relatively high on first-round rookie tackle Darnell Wright, there are usually growing pains when young players are shuffled around the line. How quickly they develop and build chemistry will have a considerable impact on Fields' development and the Bears' over/under pick.
And it's an open question how much Chicago's defense will improve this season. The Bears were completely destroyed on the ground last year, giving up the second-most yards and by far the most touchdowns (31; twice the league average and six more than any other team) in the league. Because they were so dreadful against the run, the Bears managed to finish in the middle of the pack against the pass, though they also finished dead last in the NFL in yards per attempt (7.7) and in the sack department.
DeMarcus Walker is coming off a bit of a breakout season with Tennessee, where he racked up a career-high seven sacks and 32 total pressures before landing a three-year, $21 million deal in Chicago.
But at this point, he's the best and most proven defensive lineman on the team, as Justin Jones, Trevis Gipson, Rasheem Green, and last year's fifth-round pick Dominique Robinson have been ravaged in the run game and have been underwhelming and inconsistent pass rushers. Free agent addition Andrew Billings could help improve Chicago's dreadful run defense, but there's a reason he's on his fifth different team in the last year and a half.
Second-round pick Gervon Dexter and third-round pick Zacch Pickens offer legitimate upside as much-needed rotational interior depth. The level of improvement we see from Chicago's run defense and pass rush should play a significant role in the Bears' over/under pick.
Why Chicago Could Hit The Over
With an overall manageable schedule, it's easy to see why we envision real growth from this team in the Bears' game-by-game predictions. Even when we account for some tough early season road tests—which include a primetime game in Washington, a hostile environment in Kansas City, and swelting conditions in Tampa Bay, it's hard not to have interest in taking the over for the Bears' win total prediction.
Chicago's rebuild kicked into full swing with the blockbuster trade for the No. 1 overall draft pick that handed them two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and star receiver DJ Moore.
A model of consistency, DJ Moore entered 2022 as one of only three NFL receivers to surpass 1,100 receiving yards in each of the previous three seasons, joining Stefon Diggs and tight end Travis Kelce.
Moore fell short of expectations last year, hauling in 63 catches for 888 yards (both by far the lowest totals since his 2018 rookie campaign) and a career-high seven touchdowns, as he was held back by the Panthers' game of musical chairs at quarterback with Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Sam Darnold.
But Moore gives Justin Fields a much-needed No. 1 alpha receiver and legitimate YAC threat to pair with receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool and tight end Cole Kmet.
Darnell Mooney comes off a disappointing, injury-plagued third season, but he broke out in 2021 with 81 receptions for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns. The arrival of DJ Moore should lead to a bounce-back season from Mooney, as he should be blanketed far less as the No. 2 option in a more pass-friendly offense in a contract year.
With Moore, Mooney, Claypool, and Kmet, Fields finally has a solid cast of weapons that are just entering their prime. Fourth-round rookie Tyler Scott and second-year wideout Velus Jones Jr. also provide solid depth and competition, along with veterans Dante Pettis and Equanimeous St. Brown.
Fields has to throw with more confidence and anticipation, but he's in a good situation.
The ground game has even more upside as well after the additions of veteran right guard Nate Davis and rookie first-round tackle Darnell Wright, as well as the arrival of free agent running back D'Onta Foreman and potential fourth-round draft steal Roschon Johnson, who form a four-headed monster with Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert.
Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards will play major roles in trying to overhaul the middle of the Bears' defense.
Final Bears Over/Under Pick & Prediction
With an up-and-coming roster and a manageable schedule, the Bears are well-equipped to overcome the obstacles on their schedule and take a massive leap in 2023. It's not the safest bet, but we're taking the over for the Bears' win total prediction.
Final Bears Over/Under Pick & Prediction: Over 7.5 Wins: -112