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The Cincinnati Bengals look for a third-straight season of moderate success. We are here to share our NFL odds series by making a Bengals over-under win total prediction for the 2023 season.
The Bengals had another great season, going 12-4 and making it as far as the AFC Championship game. Now, they hope to maintain their consistency and win 12 games this season en route to another successful season.
Things started badly for the Bengals in 2022, as they lost their first two games. However, they bounced back and won their next two. The Bengals were 4-4 after eight games before their reeled off eight consecutive wins and made it into the playoffs. Then, they defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the wildcard round and the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round before falling to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Title Game.
The Bengals upgraded their offensive line in the offseason by signing four-time Pro Bowler Orlando Brown to a four-year, $64 million contract. Significantly, he should help a line that has struggled over the past few seasons. But the Bengals also lost safety Jessie Bates II. Ultimately, it will be difficult to replace him as the leader of their defense.
Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 11.5 wins: +110
Under 11.5 wins: -134
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Why Cincinnati Can Win 11.5 Games
The first thing that comes to mind when discussing the Bengals is quarterback Joe Burrow. Thus, he is the most important player on this team and the main reason they have a chance to reach the 12-win mark again. Burrow had another amazing season, with 4,475 yards passing, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Now, he looks to replicate that performance and extend his numbers to new heights. But Burrow also has one of the best receivers in the NFL to throw to. Amazingly, Ja'Marr Chase still caught 87 passes for 1,046 yards for nine touchdowns despite missing time with an injury. Additionally, Tee Higgins added 74 catches on 1,029 yards and seven scores. Tyler Boyd also had 75 catches for 257 yards and five touchdowns. Therefore, this is probably the most dominant receiving core in the NFL.
The Bengals have an excellent defensive line that ranked third in the league in NFL opponent passer rating. Also, they were 13th in pressure percentage. Trey Hendrickson led the bunch with eight sacks. Meanwhile, Sam Hubbard added 6.5 sacks. This line is difficult to block.
The Bengals also have an excellent head coach, as Zac Taylor has led them to two straight playoff appearances. His play-calling and game-time decisions are excellent, and he helps give the Bengals an advantage over most teams.
The Bengals will win 12 games because they have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Likewise, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd give the Bengals a three-headed monster that is impossible to guard efficiently. The defensive line will rack up sacks and set up the offense with more chances.
Why Cincinnati Can Not Win 11.5 Games
The biggest weakness on the Bengals is their running game. Yes, Joe Mixon is still around. But Mixon rushed 210 times for 814 yards and seven touchdowns while he battled nagging injuries. Also, he is dealing with off-the-field issues that may hinder his chances to produce. The Bengals lost Samaje Perine to the Denver Broncos and will now only have rookie Chase Brown as an option in case Mixon goes down again. Furthermore, the offensive line is still not good enough to open lanes consistently for the runners.
The secondary suffered a big loss when Bates left. Now, they must find a way to replace him. They need 2022 draft pick Dax Hill to develop to make himself a viable replacement. Additionally, the Bengals need new signing Nick Scott to produce.
Evan McPherson did not replicate his amazing 2022 performance. Instead, he hit 24 of 29 field goals while also missing four extra points. The Bengals hope he can revert back to his 2021 performance.
The Bengals will have a slightly tougher slate. First, they have six games against their tough division. The Bengals will also have games against the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, and Buffalo Bills.
The Bengals will not win 12 games because they have questions in the running game and secondary to address. Likewise, the schedule is not simple, and losing only five games against their division and the other teams seems unlikely.
Final Cincinnati Bengals Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
The Bengals are still an amazing team. However, winning 12 games seems like a long shot unless the teams they play experience injury issues.
Final Cincinnati Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 11.5 wins: -134
