Happy New Year to everyone! On the second day of 2023, a pair of losers in their respective conference championship games will go head-to-head as the LSU Tigers take on the Purdue Boilermakers in sunny Orlando, Florida. It's time to continue our college football odds series with an LSU-Purdue prediction and pick.
In former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly's first year in Baton Rouge, the LSU Tigers marched their way to an SEC Championship Game berth before falling to undefeated Georgia. Nevertheless, after a rocky start to the season, the Tigers got back on track and now head into the Citrus Bowl with a 17th ranking and a 9-4 record.
On the other side of things, Purdue also was a surprise team this season in the fact that they were able to weather a down season for the Big Ten West. Even though the Boilermakers could not shock the college football world with a win over the Wolverines in the conference championship game, they still enter this one with an 8-5 record. The Boilermakers have a tremendous shot to match nine wins for the second consecutive season, though they did just lose head coach Jeff Brohm to Louisville.
Here are the LSU-Purdue college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Citrus Bowl Odds: LSU-Purdue Odds
LSU: -15.5 (-110)
Purdue: +15.5 (-110)
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
Why LSU Could Cover The Spread
There are many reasons why the Tigers could leave Orlando with a spread-covering victory, especially how they have played over the course of the season. Despite dropping their last two contests to Texas A&M and Georgia that ultimately eliminating their slim chances of playing in the playoff, LSU is confident they have what it takes to handle business on Monday.
At first glance, the Tigers have been hit with several departures due to the upcoming NFL Draft and transfer portal taking a hit on teams throughout all of college football, but it is hard to deny that LSU won't have the talent to back up their abundant absences. As of now, the Tigers will be without a trio of defensive linemen and their top wide receiver in Kayshon Boutte who will prove to be greatly missed on Monday.
Regardless, LSU's best chances to cover the spread will be because of their skillset at the quarterback position. Without needing a proper introduction, QB Jayden Daniels posted a career year in the stat books after a couple seasons at Arizona State as he managed to complete 68% of his passes for 2,774 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. Not only was Daniels proficient with his arm, but his nimble feet is what makes him stand out from the rest. With a whopping 818 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, Daniels' flashy play could leave Purdue with no answers in stopping him. Not to mention, Purdue has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks and things won't get any easier versus Daniels.
Why Purdue Could Cover The Spread
Not many teams were hit as hard with departures ahead of their bowl game than Purdue, as the Boilermakers will be relying on some unlikely heroes to get the job done on Monday. On paper, Purdue will be without the services of QB Aiden O'Connell, record-setting receiver Charlie Jones, and defensive leaders in Cory Trice and Jalen Graham. Without a doubt, the Boilermakers will have their hands full in this one, but don't be overlooking this year's Big Ten West champs.
With their backs up against the wall, Purdue's blueprint to covering the spread all relies on backup QB Austin Burton. So far throughout the college football bowl season, there has been a slew of astounding performances from second and even third-string QBs that have displayed nerves of steel when their schools needed it the most. Conversely enough, Purdue needs Burton to play lights out against a short-handed LSU defense that will also be missing some starters in the backend themselves. Simply put, getting the running game going from kickoff will also be key as well as Purdue must find a way to dominate the time of possession throughout. As the game progresses, the Boilermakers must keep their defense fresh against a dynamic Tigers offense. If Purdue can move the sticks and keep LSU guessing defensively, then covering the spread may turn out to be a reality.
Final LSU-Purdue Prediction & Pick
As lopsided as this one appears to be on paper with LSU serving as -15.5 point underdogs, the Tigers did rank dead-last in the SEC sacks allowed and if Purdue can get a flurry of pressure on Daniels, then their offense should be set up with good field position to keep this one close.
Final LSU-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Purdue +15.5 (-110)
How To Watch
TV: ABC
Stream: WatchESPN
Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00 PT
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