Cody Bellinger endured down seasons in both 2021 and 2022 with the Los Angeles Dodgers. LA ultimately made the difficult decision to move on from the former NL MVP during this past offseason. Bellinger ended up signing with the Chicago Cubs and has enjoyed a resurgence in 2023. However, is Bellinger actually back?

There's no question that Bellinger's surface numbers are sharp. He's currently slashing .303/.359/.502 with an .861 OPS and nine home runs across 56 games played. If the Cubs sell, which they are expected to do, they will receive a quality return for Bellinger if he's traded. But the underlying numbers suggest regression is a strong possibility.

Without further ado, let's take a look at two reasons why teams must not trade for Cody Bellinger ahead of the 2023 deadline.

Cody Bellinger's alarming hard-hit rate

Yes, Cody Bellinger is hitting over .300 as of this story's publication. He's clearly benefitting from the shift, because his hard-hit rate is the lowest it's been throughout his career.

Bellinger currently owns a 28.3 percent hard-hit rate, per Baseball Reference. Even during his down seasons in 2021 and 2022, he still posted hard-hit percentages higher than 34 percent. It goes beyond how hard he's hitting the baseball though.

Although Bellinger's line drive percentage is a bit higher than his career average in 2023, his 25.9 percent fly ball rate is the third lowest mark of his career. Sometimes players benefit from keeping the ball out of the air via a swing adjustment, which seems to be what's occurring with Bellinger.

Teams need to ask themselves if a player who's benefitting from the shift restriction can maintain this production with such a low hard-hit and fly ball rate. It's possible, but there is some luck involved. And that leads us into our next point.

Bellinger's BAbip

For those who may not be aware, BAbip, or batting average on balls in play, is a telling statistic. Often times it's used as a way to remain optimistic even when talented players are struggling at the plate. If those players have a low BAbip, they can blame it on bad luck.

For Bellinger, the exact opposite is currently happening.

Cody Bellinger's 2023 BAbip of .333 is the highest mark of his career. Again, this is clearly a result of the shift restriction. But banking on the shift restriction to completely salvage a player's career is risky. For now, it's still new and teams are learning to adjust. But coaching staffs, pitchers, and defenses will make necessary adjustments. One those happen, it will be interesting to see how Bellinger fares.

Final thoughts

I'm not trying to argue that Cody Bellinger is a bad player or anything of that nature. He still features impressive potential and it's good to see him finding his footing in Chicago. However, teams need to be weary before sending valuable prospect capital for a player who's received quite a bit of good luck in 2023.

If Bellinger continues to perform well and it becomes evident that there is no realistic adjustment to the shift restriction down the road, then perhaps we can ignore his lower hard-hit rate and high BAbip. For now, though, it is a concern.

Some people are stating that MVP-level Cody Bellinger has returned. Unfortunately, that just isn't the case. In 2019, his MVP season, he posted a 49 percent hard-hit rate and 30.6 percent fly ball rate. It will be intriguing to see how much interest Bellinger receives ahead of the 2023 MLB trade deadline.