The No. 13 Iowa State Cyclones (15-5) visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-10) on Monday night. Action tips off at 9:00 p.m. ET. Below we continue our College Basketball odds series with an Iowa State-Texas Tech prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Iowa State is coming off a 17-point loss to Missouri but still sits at 6-2 and tied for first place in the Big 12. The Cyclones covered 60% of their games while 65% went under the projected point total. Texas Tech had lost eight consecutive games prior to taking down LSU on Saturday. That being said, they still sit at 0-8 and in last place in the Big 12. The Red Raiders covered 35% of their games while 60% went over. This will be the second meeting between the two teams after Iowa State pulled out a 34-point victory in Ames earlier this month.
Here are the Iowa State-Texas Tech college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Iowa State-Texas Tech Odds
Iowa State: -1.5 (-102)
Texas Tech: +1.5 (-120)
Over: 127.5 (-115)
Under: 127.5 (-105)
How To Watch Iowa State vs. Texas Tech
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Iowa State Could Cover The Spread
Iowa State started the season hot as they went 9-2 in non-conference play. The Cyclones continued that into conference play and are in a three-way tie for first in the Big 12. They have a number of quality wins including over: North Carolina; No. 11 Baylor; No. 15 TCU; No. 10 Texas; and No. 7 Kansas State. However, the Cyclones did suffer a trio of double-digit losses against No. 24 UConn, Iowa, and Missouri. They fare well within the advanced metrics, ranking No. 17 in KenPom and No. 11 in NET. Iowa State has an impressive six Quad 1 wins and additionally has gone a perfect 9-0 in Quads 2, 3, and 4. As a result, the Cyclones currently project as a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State is a serious national title contender whose identity is centered around its elite defense. The Cyclones allow just 60.5 PPG – the 11th-best mark in the country. Their high-pressure defense puts a ton of stress on opposing offenses and as a result, Iowa State generates a ton of turnovers. They force a turnover on 24.4% of possessions – the highest rate in Division-1. That defense was on full display the first time these teams met as Iowa State forced Texas Tech into 19 turnovers. They held the Red Raiders to 37% shooting and out-rebounded them 45-28 in that beatdown.
Offensively, Iowa State is led by a trio of talented guards. Seniors Jaren Holmes (13.8 PPG) and Gave Kalscheur (13.2 PPG) lead the team in scoring. Both players were fantastic in their earlier meeting with Texas Tech as Kalscheur scored a season-high 25 points while Holmes chipped in 15. Fellow senior Caleb Grill is the only other Cyclone to average more than 10 points per game. Along with Kalscheur (36% from three on 5.9 attempts per game), Grill serves as the team's go-to three-point shooter. Grill shoots 37% from beyond the arc on 5.8 attempts per game.
Why Texas Tech Could Cover The Spread
Texas Tech had a hot start to the season which included going 10-2 in non-conference play. They have gone 1-8 since and have yet to win a conference game. As a result, the Red Raiders are firmly in last place in the Big 12. Because of that, they are not favored by advanced metrics. Texas Tech ranks No. 66 in KenPom and No. 69 in NET. That is largely because they haven't beaten anyone of significance. While the Red Raiders are a perfect 11-0 in Quad 3 and 4 matchups, they are an ugly 0-10 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. As a result, Texas Tech does not project to make the NCAA Tournament.
Texas Tech features a solid offense that ranks in the top 80 in the country with 74.5 PPG. The Red Raiders prioritize getting to the rim and attacking the basket. They rank 41st in two-point field goal percentage (54%) and attempt the 53rd-most free throws per game (14.6/20.9).
The Red Raiders are led by senior forward Kevin Obanor. Obanor struggled in their last matchup with Iowa State, but his 15.3 PPG ranks ninth in the Big 12. On the defensive side of the ball, French big man Daniel Batcho is an anchor down low. The 6'11” sophomore ranks second in the conference with 1.9 blocks per game and has blocked a shot in all but two games this season.
Final Iowa State-Texas Tech Prediction & Pick
Texas Tech has been atrocious in Big 12 play. They suffered a 34-point loss to Iowa State earlier in the season and moving the game down to Lubbock isn't worth 32 points. Ride the Cyclones with confidence.
Final Iowa State-Texas Tech Prediction & Pick: Iowa State -1.5 (-102)
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