College Football is right around the corner with less than 100 days remaining until the start of the 2023 season. Consequently, FanDuel has us covered with a plethora of College Football win total over/unders for teams across the country. Today we take a look at the LSU's over/under odds. Thus, we continue our College Football odds series with an LSU Football over/under win total prediction, odds, and pick.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: LSU Over/Under Odds
Over 9.5 wins: +104
Under 9.5 wins: -128
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Why LSU Can Win 9.5 Games
LSU finished 10-4 last season in Brian Kelly's first season in Baton Rouge. The Tigers picked up notable wins over Ole Miss and Alabama before crushing Purdue 63-7 in the Citrus Bowl. The Brian Kelly tenure didn't get off to a great start after dropping the home opener to Florida State but they rattled off four straight wins after that. However, they were crushed at home by Tennessee and choked away a road loss to Texas A&M before Georgia made short work of them in the SEC Championship game. Still, winning the SEC West in Kelly's first year was no small feat and thus they stand a strong chance of eclipsing double-digit wins again next season with a majority of their offense returning for 2023.
LSU ranks 32nd overall in ESPN's Returning Production metric but ranks 10th in returning offense. The Tigers are led by dual-threat quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels impressed last season – drawing comparisons to Tennessee star Hendon Hooker from NFL scouts. The Arizona State transfer threw for 2,913 yards in his inaugural year in Baton Rouge – tossing 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions. The Tigers also return star receiver Malik Nabers who paced the team with 72 receptions for 1,017 yards and three touchdowns.
LSU hit the transfer portal hard over the offseason. On offense, they added former Notre Dame running back Logan Diggs. Diggs returns to his home state of Louisiana to play for the coach that recruited him. Diggs had a strong season in South Bend last year – rushing for 820 yards and four touchdowns. Their biggest addition came on the defensive end, however, with former Oregon State linebacker Omar Speights joining the mix. An All-Pac 12 linebacker in 2022, Speights will be an immediate starter for a team that lost a ton of production on the defensive side of the ball.
Looking at their schedule, LSU can lose two games and still hit the over. They kick things off with a prime-time matchup versus Florida State – against whom they're 1.5-point favorites. The rest of their non-conference schedule is a cakewalk but the SEC schedule should again be a gauntlet. Their toughest games come on the road against Alabama and Ole Miss. Still, the Tigers should be favorites in every other game. Consequently, for the Tigers to hit the over we'd just be asking them to go 1-2 and avoid upsets.
Why LSU Can Not Win 9.5 Games
Aspirations are high for LSU entering Brian Kelly's second season in Baton Rouge. However, Tigers fans should be weary of his track record in big games. At Notre Dame, Kelly finished with a paltry 4-11 record against top 10 opponents. Two of those wins came against opponents that would finish the season unranked, while another came against a Clemson team playing without Trevor Lawrence. Additionally, he went 0-2 in the College Football Playoff with the Fighting Irish. The team did pick up monster wins against Ole Miss and Alabama last year. However, they choked games against Florida State and Texas A&M, nearly lost to Auburn and Arkansas, and were crushed by the best two teams on their schedule (Tennessee and George). Expecting them to go 2-1 against FSU, ‘Bama, and Ole Miss while avoiding an upset seems like a tall ask for Kelly.
While their schedule is concerning, the defense is the biggest question mark. The Tigers notably lost acclaimed defensive line coach Jamar Cain to the NFL. Additionally, they rank just 72nd in returning defensive production. Considering the Tigers ranked just sixth in the SEC in both points allowed and total defense, they certainly won't be improving on that end.
Final LSU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
I laid out the path for LSU to hit the over above and it's very doable. They have three really tough games – against Florida State, Alabama, and Ole Miss. Although none of those come at home, asking LSU to go 1-2 over that stretch doesn't feel farfetched – especially with the bulk of their offense returning. Brian Kelly's resume is chock-full of 10-win seasons and I'm betting he notches another this year.
Final LSU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 9.5 (+104)
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