The 2022 Maryland Terrapins won seven regular season games and capped off their schedule with a bowl game victory. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Maryland football over/under win total prediction and pick.
Mike Locksley and Maryland Football bring back an offense that expects to be explosive once again. Taulia Tagovailoa returns, and while Maryland did lose some top wide receivers, they bring back 64% of their offensive production from last year. Last year was a team that won seven games and lost two games by under a touchdown. Each year under Mike Locksley has seen improvement for the Terps. They have continued to recruit at a high level and improved at nearly every position. Now they will look to make the next step and get to their first ten-win season since 2003.
Getting to ten wins, or even eight may be a tall order. In conference play, they will be facing Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. That could be three losses right there for Maryland football. Michigan State, Nebraska, Indiana, and Illinois will also provide tough competition for the Terps. The non-conference schedule should provide some early wins, but will it be enough to carry the Maryland win total over 7.5?
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: +134
Under 7.5 wins: -164
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Why Maryland Can Win 7.5 Games
For Maryland to hit the over on their win total it has to start in the non-conference schedule. The Terps open their season against Towson before hosting UNC Charlotte and UVA. They should be favored in all three of those games before hitting the road for their first Big Ten opponent. If Maryland drops one of the three, hitting the over will be near impossible with their conference schedule. With three wins to start, Maryland then needs to win five games in Big Ten play.
Maryland was 4-5 in Big Ten conference play last year, so they will be looking to improve by one game over last year. At home, they will face Indiana, Illinois, Penn State, and Michigan. With the amount of returning players to a Michigan team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year, that game is most likely a loss, but Maryland played well against Michigan, and with that being the week before Ohio State, it could be a spot they could score an upset. Penn State returns similar production as Maryland this year, and last year it was a 30-0 Penn State win. Maryland will be better, but most likely not enough to beat Penn State. Regardless, they can beat Indiana and Illinois. They beat Indiana last year, and Illinois lost a lot in their secondary which will help Maryland.
The road schedule is more manageable for the Terps. They do face Ohio State on the road, which will most likely be a loss. Still, they get Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Michigan State on the road. The Terps defeated Rutgers, Northwestern, and Michigan State last year. Michigan State is turning over much of their defense, and with how good the Maryland offense is, and will continue to be, that should be another win. Rutgers and Northwestern were both not quality schools last year, and Maryland should be favored. If they win all three of those games, with the two games at home, and three in non-conference play, they win eight, and the Maryland football wins total over hits.
Why Maryland Can Not Win 7.5 Games
Maryland virtually starts the year with three losses on the schedule. Barring a major upset, they will lose to Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State. With two of those games at home, it puts Maryland at an even bigger disadvantage. With three losses on the schedule, Maryland would have to go 8-1 in the other nine games to hit the over. Rutgers is top 25 in returning production on both offense and defense this year. They should be improved this year, and that game is at Rutgers this year. Maryland may be favored, but it could be a small favorite. That game may also have major implications for Rutgers. They are hoping to be fighting for bowl eligibility this year. If they are sitting at five wins going into the last game of the season, there is something extra to play for.
Michigan State should also be improved as should Indiana. Last year's game with Indiana was just a five-point win for Maryland, but this year they are at home. Michigan State was defeated soundly by the Terps, but that was in College Park. The Terps could easily lose one of those two games, which would all but ensure they are not hitting the over.
Finally, there is Nebraska. In the first year under Matt Ruhle, how will the Cornhuskers fare? Nebraska is 39th in returning production but ranked well behind Maryland in SP+ at the end of last year. It would need to be a major turnaround for Nebraska to ensure a win in this game.
Final Maryland Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Maryland has four games in which they will be heavily favored and should win. They should be heavy underdogs against the big three from the Big Ten. That places five games in the toss-up category for Maryland. Michigan State will either be taking a major step forward or firing Mel Tucker this year. Indiana may be in the same boat. Illinois lost a lot on defense, is not sure about their quarterback, and lost their top running back. Nebraska has a new coach, but the team was awful last year. Rutgers is not normally great but is trending in a positive direction. Maryland beats Michigan State to get to 4-0. They then knock off Indiana before losing to the Buckeyes. They fall to Illinois the next week, but after the by come away with a win over Northwestern. November 11th in another win over Nebraska getting the Terps to 7-3. After a loss to Michigan, it all rides on the Rutgers game. They hit the over with a big win at Rutgers on the last game of the season.
Final Maryland Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 7.5 (+134)
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