The TCU Horned Frogs are back after having a Cinderella season. We are here to share our college football odds series while making a TCU over-under win total prediction and pick.

The Horned Frogs went 13-2, including 9-0 in the ACC in 2022 and went all the way to the NCAA Championship before falling to Georgia. Now, they look to replicate the effort in 2023.

TCU started their season with a 38-13 thrashing at Colorado. Then, they defeated Tarleton State 59-17. The Horned Frogs won 42-34 at SMU. Next, they destroyed Oklahoma 55-24 against Oklahoma. TCU followed that up with a 38-31 victory at Kansas. Then, they edged out Oklahoma State 43-40. The Horned Frogs continued the roll with a 38-28 win over Kansas State. Afterward, they won 41-31 at West Virginia.

The Horned Frogs continued their hot streak with a 34-24 win over Texas Tech and a 17-10 victory at Texas. TCU edged out 29-28 at Baylor. Finally, they ended the regular-season slate with a 62-14 victory over Iowa State. The Horned Frogs lost 31-28 in the Big-12 Title Game against Kansas State. However, they bounced back when they defeated Michigan 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl to earn a spot in the national championship game. They succumbed to Georgia 65-7 in the title game, ending their Cinderella run.

TCU saw eight players move on to the NFL in the draft. First, they lost a player fast when the Los Angeles Chargers drafted wide receiver Quentin Johnson with the 21st pick in the first round. The Los Angeles Rams drafted guard Steve Avila with the 36th pick in the second round. Additionally, the New Orleans Saints drafted Kendre Miller with the 71st pick in the third round. Defensive end Dylan Horton went to the Houston Texans with the 109th pick in the fourth round. Likewise, wide receiver Derius Davis went to the Los Angeles Chargers with the 125th pick in the fourth round. Cornerback Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson went to the Rams with the 182nd pick in the sixth round.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 7.5 wins: -144

Under 7.5 wins: +118

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Why TCU Can Win 7.5 Games 

TCU gets a boost in the running game with Alabama transfer Trey Sanders, a former five-star recruit who rushed 14 times for 80 yards and a touchdown in 2022. Furthermore, it followed a season after he rushed 72 times for 314 yards and two scores. Sanders will get more chances this season. However, Emani Bailey is also back after rushing 31 times for 250 yards in 2022. TCU will have a new player with JoJo Earle, the Alabama transfer, in town. Also, Savion Williams returns and hopes to improve on a season where he caught 29 passes for 392 yards and four scores. Tight end Jared Wiley had a career season where he caught 24 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns.

The defense lost many players. However, fifth-year safety Mark Perry returns to TCU after having 59 solo tackles and two pass deflections. The special teams played amazingly in 2022, with kicker Griffin Kell converting 17 of 19 field goals.

TCU will win eight games if their offense continues to roll over teams. Then, they need to replace all the departed players and remain steady at defense. The special teams should be a strength.

Why TCU Can Not Win 7.5 Games

There is a new quarterback in town with Max Duggard in the NFL. Thus, welcome Chandler Morris to the starter's role. Morris tossed for 145 yards and one touchdown in limited action. Now, he has big shoes to fill.

There will be two freshmen players on defense that must step up. First, All-American Damonic Williams must show he is ready for the next level. Redshirt freshman Paul Oyewale is also out to prove he has a lot to showcase. Moreover, the Horned Frogs lost their best pass rushers. Horton and Dee Winters are both gone, and they accounted for 60 percent of their pass rushes. Who will generate sacks for TCU? They must figure this out before the season starts.

TCU will not win eight games because they have lost too many players to the NFL. Ultimately, the departure of all the players, especially on defense, will cause a significant drop in the standings.

Final TCU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Last year was amazing for the Horned Frogs. However, it was also a season where everything went well. Losing your star quarternack is tough to overcome. Furthermore, losing your top defensive stars is even tougher. Expect that to affect the Horned Frogs and cause a slight dip, with seven wins being possible.

Final TCU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 wins: +118