Although it seems like it started yesterday, the college football regular season is officially over. Conference championships are taking place this weekend, and the College Football Playoff selection committee will announce the playoff field on Sunday. Though many teams have looked like contenders over the course of the season, only a few remain alive heading into the final week.
The six teams that still have a realistic shot at the playoff are Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC, Ohio State and Alabama. The first four can punch their tickets with wins this weekend, and some may still make it even with a loss. Meanwhile, Ohio State and especially Alabama need help this weekend to make it.
Even with only one week remaining, a lot hangs in the balance. If one or two upsets occur this weekend, the committee could be in for a headache when deciding the field. Let's go over some of the wildest possible College Football Playoff scenarios.
3. Georgia and Michigan lose
Georgia and Michigan will certainly occupy the top two spots once the new rankings drop on Tuesday night. The Bulldogs and Wolverines have been the two most dominant teams in football this season, without question. Though, which team places first remains to be seen, as the Wolverines' beatdown of Ohio State on Saturday may be enough to propel them to the top spot.
This weekend, both teams face heavy underdogs in their conference championship games. Georgia faces 9-3 LSU, which just suffered an embarrassing 15-point loss to Texas A&M, in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Michigan faces 8-4 Purdue, which won an incredibly weak division, in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
Now what would happen if both teams happened to lose on Saturday? This scenario looked much more interesting in previous weeks as LSU was still alive in the CFP picture. Now that the Tigers are out, though, this scenario may not change much.
Even with a loss, both these teams should still make the playoff. Michigan won't fall behind an Ohio State team that it just crushed, and Georgia still has a strong enough resume to make it too. Not to mention, Georgia just won the national championship after losing the conference championship last season.
The biggest change in this scenario would be seeding. TCU would take over the top spot as the country's lone undefeated team, while USC would likely jump one or both teams. This may impact where each team goes, but the overall field should remain the same.
2. TCU and USC lose
Now here's a scenario that could cause some chaos. USC already has one loss, and thus cannot afford another one in the Pac-12 Championship against Utah. Undefeated TCU may be able to survive a loss, but the Horned Frogs would rather beat Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship to cement their spot.
While both teams are favorites heading into these matchups, they are far from locks. The Trojans already lost to the Utes in a 43-42 thriller in Salt Lake City on Oct. 15, and they will need to be ready this time. The Wildcats also had the Horned Frogs on the ropes, leading by 18 before falling 38-28 in Fort Worth on Oct. 22.
If both teams were to lose, the playoff picture would turn on its head. USC would almost certainly be out, and Ohio State would likely climb back into the top four. The seeding is interesting, though, as it seems unlikely the committee would pit Ohio State and Michigan together in the semifinals.
That means the final spot would likely come down to TCU and Alabama, although USC may still have a slim chance. The Horned Frogs haven't exactly been dominant this season, and not having a conference championship would really hurt. However, the Horned Frogs should still get the edge over a two-loss Alabama team that hasn't looked dominant either.
1. All of the favorites lose
This scenario would cause the most chaos in the history of the College Football Playoff. If Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC all somehow lost this weekend, no team would be a true lock. Still, let's use process of elimination to decide the field.
Georgia would still be in, and would likely still be the top seed as no team has a strong enough resume to pass the Bulldogs. Michigan would also still be in for similar reasons, especially since they already beat a competitor. The last two spots are where things get interesting, though.
However, this leaves us in almost the same situation as the previous scenario. Georgia and Michigan would occupy the top two spots, while Ohio State, TCU, Alabama and USC fight it out for theist two. The former two are more likely, while the latter two have an outside shot.
This scenario would certainly cause a lot of chaos, but the field still remains relatively unchanged. The fact that there are so few teams alive, and the gap between those teams, make movement difficult. Regardless of what happens, though, the College Football Playoff should provide plenty of excitement.
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