The Tampa Bay Buccaneers get the honor of home-field advantage in this Super Wild-Card matchup despite finishing with two fewer victories than the Washington Commanders. The Bucs finished first in the NFC South, which they nearly gave away when they trailed against the New Orleans Saints in Week 18 while the Atlanta Falcons led their game. Nevertheless, the Buccaneers persevered to win the game and clinch the division title. The Commanders finished second to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East but enter the playoffs on a five-game win streak. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Commanders-Buccaneers prediction and pick.

Commanders-Buccaneers Last Game – Matchup History

The Commanders and Buccaneers played in Week 1, long removed from the season that unfolded in the subsequent 17 weeks. It was Jayden Daniels' first career start, and a slow beginning to his career wasn't the most surprising thing. However, Daniels quickly became the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner as the season continued.

The Buccaneers won that Week 1 matchup, and their home-field advantage likely made them the slight favorite in this playoff matchup. Tampa Bay dominated that game from start to finish, taking a 13-0 lead early in the second quarter. Brian Robinson answered with a rushing touchdown, but it was the closest the Commanders ever got in that game.

Baker Mayfield threw four touchdown passes in the win, but Daniels showed glimpses of his brilliance with two rushing touchdowns and 88 rushing yards. However, he didn't do much through the air.

An intriguing note about this game is that the winner will take the all-time lead in the season series. The teams are currently tied at 13 wins apiece.

Overall Series: Series Tied 13-13

Here are the Commanders-Buccaneers NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFC Wild Card Odds: Commanders-Buccaneers Odds

Washington Commanders: +3 (-110)

Moneyline: +150

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -3 (-110)

Moneyline: -180

Over: 50.5 (-110)

Under: 50.5 (-110)

How to Watch Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15 PM PT

TV: NBC

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Why The Commanders Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Commanders' offense, led by the surging Daniels, ended up being one of the top in the league. It hadn't ultimately come together when they faced the Buccaneers in Week 1, but Tampa Bay will have to be ready for a different-looking offense in their playoff matchup. The Commanders ranked fifth with 28.5 points per game and sixth with 6.0 yards per play.

The Commanders will rely on Daniels in this matchup, so the most significant question is whether he can handle the pressure of his first playoff game. The Buccaneers rank in the bottom three in most pass-defense categories, setting up Daniels for a special night on Sunday.

Why The Buccaneers Could Cover The Spread/Win

Bucky Irving was a breakout star for the Bucs in 2024. He recorded 80+ rushing yards in four of his last five games, leaving out the Las Vegas Raiders game, where he suffered an injury early. The Commanders have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, allowing 137.5 yards per game. Ironically, this game could come down to either team's star rookie to put them over the top on offense.

Final Commanders-Buccaneers Prediction & Pick

Who will have the most significant impact on this game? Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' passing offense, or Bucky Irving and the Buccaneers' rushing offense. The Commanders have been playing better recently since their rough losing streak in the middle of the season, while the Buccaneers haven't beaten one team with a winning record since September. We'll take Daniels to continue his heroic season and lead the Commanders to the next round.

Final Commanders-Buccaneers Prediction & Pick: Commanders +3 (-110)