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The Chicago Cubs will begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday at Citizen's Bank Park. There is playoff seeding on the line as we share our MLB odds series and make a Cubs-Phillies prediction and pick.
Cubs-Phillies Projected Starters
Justin Steele vs. Aaron Nola
Justin Steele (5-5) with a 3.03 ERA
Last Start: Steele lasted just 2 2/3 innings in his last outing, allowing two hits, walking three, and striking out one in a no-decision against the Oakland Athletics.
2024 Road Splits: Steele is 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA over 11 starts away from home.
Aaron Nola (12-8) with a 3.54 ERA
Last Start: Nola dominated in his last outing, going seven innings, allowing one earned run and three hits while striking out nine and walking one in a no-decision against the Milwaukee Brewers.
2024 Home Splits: Nola is 6-4 with a 3.31 ERA over 16 starts at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Phillies Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-160)
Moneyline: +150
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+132)
Moneyline: -178
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
How to Watch Cubs vs. Phillies
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Marquee
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Cubs Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Cubs have been eliminated from the postseason, which is unsurprising. While they have hovered around .500 for much of the season, they have not had enough to put themselves into contention. The Cubs just don't have the quality hitting to get anything going. Moreover, they just have not had a good history against the Phillies.
Nico Hoerner has been one of the reliable bats in the Chicago lineup. Yet, he is batting just .254 with 15 hits, one home run, nine RBIs, and five runs over 15 games against the Phillies. Ian Happ has also been one of the better hitters. However, he is hitting only .202 with 21 hits, three home runs, 16 RBIs, and 13 runs over 34 games against Philadelphia. No one else in this lineup has produced good numbers against the Phillies, and that needs to change for the Cubs to have a chance.
It's been the opposite with Steele. Remarkably, he has gone 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA over two starts against the Phillies. When Steele finishes, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 12th in baseball in team ERA. There has not been an established closer for the Cubs this season.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies came into this battle trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers by one game for the top spot in the NL. While they are playing the Cubs, they are also keeping an eye on the scoreboard. They can gain the upper hand with the Dodgers having the day off and getting the victory today. To do that, they need their offense to come alive.
Trea Turner is exceptional. Additionally, he is batting .287 with 43 hits, three home runs, 17 RBIs, and 31 runs over 36 games against Chicago. Bryce Harper remains one of the best hitters in baseball. Furthermore, he is hitting .309 with 68 hits, 12 home runs, 37 RBIs, and 46 runs over his career against the Cubs. Kyle Schwarber has had a great season. Yet, he has been boom-or-bust against the Cubs, batting .170 with nine hits, five home runs, nine RBIs, and 10 runs over 16 games against the Cubs.
Nola has made three quality starts in five outings. However, he has struggled in his career against the Cubs, going 6-2 with a 4.69 ERA over nine starts. When he concludes his start, he will turn it over to a struggling bullpen. Rob Thompson is not happy with this bullpen. Unfortunately, they recently blew another game and don't have an established closer. That might be their weakness in the playoffs if they hold a tight lead. Therefore, they must figure out a way to maintain that lead.
The Phillies will cover the spread if their top bats can clobber the baseball and build a large lead. Then, they need Nola to go deep into this game to prevent putting too much pressure on this bullpen, which has struggled recently.
Final Cubs-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Cubs are 75-81 against the run line, while the Phillies are 77-79. Additionally, the Cubs are 46-32 against the run line on the road, while the Phillies are 36-41 at home. Steele has done well against the Phillies, while Nola has struggled against the Cubs. Thus, it is easy to see a trend here. This makes me believe that the Cubs will put up a fight. Expect the Cubs to find a way to cover the run line on the road in this one.
Final Cubs-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-160)
