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The fantasy football world is shifting in 2024. The old adage of running backs winning you your league is no longer as true as it used to be. In today’s game (both real and fantastical), wide receivers are growing in importance, and snagging a great one in the later rounds will put you on the path to a trophy. With that in mind, let’s look at the biggest fantasy football wide receiver breakout candidates.
What defines fantasy football wide receiver breakout candidates?
For more insight, listen to our 2024 fantasy football primer:
Well, what we are looking for here is a WR who will exceed his stats from the last several seasons and, because of that, outplay his average draft position (ADP). So, for example, if a wide receiver’s ADP is 15.0 (meaning he’s, on average, the 15th WR off the board across all of a fantasy site’s drafts) but he finishes as a top-10 WR statistically and in fantasy points, that’s a breakout player.
For our purposes here, we’ll use Fantasy Pros composite PPR ADP rankings. This ranking takes into account an average of a player’s ADP from top fantasy sites like ESPN, NFL.com, Sleeper Fantasy, and RealTime Fantasy Sports.
Of the five biggest fantasy football wide receiver breakout candidates for this season, you’ll notice they all have one thing in common. They are all about to embark on their third NFL season. This is a huge milestone in WRs’ careers as, for some reason, dozens of top pass-catchers have broken out in Year 3.
This season, keep an eye on several, if not all, of these five to do the same.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
2023 stats: 95 catches on 168 targets, 1,042 yards, three touchdowns
Jets wideout Garrett Wilson has been awesome since his rookie season, posting over 1,000 yards in each of his first two years, even with the abject disaster that the Jets quarterback situation has been.
Last season, Wilson was WR26 in PPR, according to Fantasy Pros. This year, his ADP is 12.6, meaning he is going with the last pick of the first round or first pick of the second in 12-team leagues. That’s pretty high, but he’s also the seventh WR off the board in most drafts, and he has a real chance to be a top-three wideout this season if…
Aaron Rodgers stays healthy.
If Rodgers can piece together anything resembling his last few years in Green Bay, Wilson has the potential to put up Davante Adams numbers, which can be WR1 numbers in fantasy. If he does that, getting him in the late first, or early second is a steal.
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
2023 stats: 69 catches on 109 targets, 905 yards, two touchdowns
Here is another fantasy football wide receiver breakout candidate who is all about the QB situation. Drake London has dealt with brutal play from his signal-callers in his first two years, but now he actually has two outs.
We all know that while Kirk Cousins leaves a lot to be desired as an NFL QB, he is a solid fantasy QB who can create a No. 1 WR under the right circumstances (see: Justin Jefferson). Also, if Cousins gets hurt or falters, the team has Michael Penix Jr., a first-round pick and arguably the most game-ready QB from the 2024 NFL Draft.
London was WR37 last season and this year, his ADP is 26, putting him in the third round. With his top-10 wide receiver potential, he could anchor your fantasy team’s WR corps if you go elsewhere with your first two picks.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
2023 stats: 39 catches on 45 targets, 611 yards, two touchdowns
We now get to the non-quarterback-reliant potential fantasy football wide receiver breakout candidates with Khalil Shakir. He still has the best QB in fantasy football throwing to him in Josh Allen, so the reason he could break out is opportunity.
Shakir was WR61 last season, making him a solid bye-week replacement at best. Still, he did that on just 45 targets, which is less than half of what players like Wilson and London got.
This season, Shakir’s ADP is 133.6, or in the 11th round of a 12-team league. That’s quite a bargain when you consider that his targets went up significantly in the second half of last season, and with Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis gone, that’s 241 targets to spread around this season.
Sure, Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman will get their fair share of those, but even if Shakir gets close to a quarter of those, he’ll be up around 100 targets and could produce numbers like some of the best slot receivers in the game.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
2023 stats: 24 catches on 42 targets, 354 yards, two touchdowns
Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams can’t catch a break, although some of it is his own doing. In his two NFL seasons, the talented wideout has played just 18 games due to a knee injury suffered in college (which limited him to just 78 snaps as a rookie) and a gambling suspension.
Now, it seems like Williams is finally fully healthy and drama-free, meaning he could finally step into the role that the Lions envisioned for him when they took him 12th overall in 2022, knee injury and all.
Josh Reynolds is now gone, making Williams the No. 2 WR and No. 3 pass-catching option on the team (behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta). With those two — and Jahmyr Gibbs coming out of the backfield — drawing so much attention, Williams could explode and far exceed his 116 (WR47) ADP.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
2023 stats: 59 catches on 96 targets, 674 yards, eight touchdowns
It seems as though one of the Green Bay Packers’ young and exciting WRs will break out this season, the question is which one. For several reasons, Doubs is the one to bet on here.
Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are candidates, but they are both being drafted relatively high, with ADPs of 102.4 and 83.6, respectively. Plus, as good as Watson is, he is still a massive injury risk. Dontayvion Wicks is a wild card with the lowest ADP of all these players (180.6), but he’s still unproven, as he came in as WR58 last season.
Doubs has an ADP of 142.4 (WR53) and was WR36 in fantasy football in 2023. So, if he just holds serve, you’re getting a ton of value there. And if he becomes one of those famous third-year breakout WRs, he could be a league-winner.
