The Milwaukee Brewers currently sit atop the National League Central with an 11-6 record as of Tuesday. They also have the worst run differential (-3) in the division. Could this really be happening again?
Despite a depleted bullpen that has lost Corey Knebel for the season and is still without last year's star closer, Jeremy Jeffress, the Brewers are 5-0 in one-run games. By contrast they are 0-2 in games decided by five or more runs, getting outscored 21-9 in those contests.
And yet, thanks mostly due to the continued heroics of Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, Milwaukee continues to roll along as the best team in the division. But here is the thing, it simply cannot last.
Even if Yelich embarks on yet another MVP-type campaign, this Brewers team has a more glaring set of flaws that makes them one of the foremost candidates in the MLB to experience serious regression.
Too much inexperience in the starting rotation
Although the Brewers have scored the fourth-most runs in the National League thus far, they have allowed 91 runs, which ranks 13th out of 15 National League clubs.
The problems start at the top of the pitching staff, as the rotation has struggled immensely. Milwaukee had hoped that moving former bullpen studs Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes would help them overcome the loss of Wade Miley and a general lack of depth, but instead the two youngsters have struggled.
Woodruff's peripherals are slightly more encouraging (2.54 FIP in spite of a 6.00 ERA, as of Tuesday), but Burnes has unraveled in each of his three outings.
Although he certainly has the kind of fastball and stuff necessary to be a dominant strikeout pitcher, Burnes' command issues have helped to make him more one-dimensional. As a result, he has served up a league-high nine homers to opposing hitters, posting a 5.7 HR/9 rate which is obviously unsustainable.
Speaking of pitchers with command issues, Jhoulys Chacin has been nowhere near as dependable as he was for the Brewers last season.
Chacin is among the league leaders in walks, and his velocity is down across the board. Even worse, he is allowing the exact same percentage of balls in the air as ground balls, a far cry from his prior history as primarily a ground-ball pitcher. And considering that opponents' BABIP is a shockingly-low .204 against Chacin, it will really not bode well if he fails to get his command under control.
Then there is Freddy Peralta, who is much like Woodruff and Burnes in his potential as a power pitcher, but likewise has been torched by opposing hitters.
One of the problems the Brewers face is that opposing hitters are always going to be more aggressive against their starting pitching, knowing that Hader lurks in the middle innings. That hardly benefits a young group of pitchers that really need to work through their mechanics and try to grow stronger as their starts go along.
Too dependent on Yelich…
As previously mentioned, Yelich has maintained his momentum from the second half of last season. After another multi-homer game against the Cardinals on Monday evening, Yelich has hit eight homers and driven in 22 runs. That is one-quarter of Milwaukee's total, and counting his 17 runs scored, he has had a hand in almost half of the Brewers offense. Pretty ridiculous stuff.
However, for as excellent a hitter as Yelich is, there is simply no way that he can carry this offense on his own. According to FanGraphs, he has posted a 202 wRC+ so far this year, and his HR/FB rate is still near a ridiculous 40 percent. Sooner or later, those numbers will dwindle, even if it is the slightest amount. Who else is ready to step up?
On a positive note, Yasmani Grandal is proving to be one of the most underrated additions of the offseason. As of Tuesday, Grandal is hitting a scalding .417 and slugging .708 with four homers, giving the Brewers serious production at a position of need. The decision to re-sign Mike Moustakas has paid off as well, as he has already hit six homers this year.
And yet there are plenty of reasons for concern. Jesus Aguilar is hitting .152 and slugging just .196, as he has yet to hit a home run after hitting 35 last year. Despite slashing his strikeout rate and drawing walks at a higher percentage, Aguilar's hard-hit contact is way down, and he has totaled just three “Barrels,” according to MLB Statcast.
Meanwhile, Travis Shaw is striking out in nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances while slugging just .250, and Ryan Braun's hard-hit percentage is down as well.
Yelich and Lorenzo Cain may be as dependable as they come, but the rest of the lineup is full of wild cars. Guys like Orlando Arcia are hardly going to put up big numbers, so the Brewers will begin to falter if Aguilar, Shaw and Braun continue to struggle.
…and Hader
The dependency on Josh Hader is far more pronounced. Without Knebel and Jeffress in the fold, Hader has to be a super-utility. He has thrown 10 innings in just seven games, albeit to the tune of a 0.90 ERA and 16.2 K/9.
Junior Guerra has done a nice job of swallowing innings in middle relief as well, but from there it has been downhill. Former starter Chase Anderson has not looked good in his move to the bullpen, and both Alex Wilson and Alex Claudio have lacked effectiveness.
The biggest loss for Milwaukee has been a shortage in depth. Of course, losing Knebel and Jeffress early was a setback. But the Brewers also let Joakim Soria walk in free agency and moved to very effective bullpen arms (Woodruff and Burnes) into their rotation.
As previously mentioned, Milwaukee is undefeated in one-run games, and that is mostly due to Hader, who has five saves in his seven appearances. But manager Craig Counsell cannot afford to have his star reliever burn out mid-season, so he will have no choice but to trust in some of his other bullpen guys, unless the starting rotation can go deeper into games.
Perhaps the Brewers will take another hard look at Craig Kimbrel, but until they do, it is unlikely that they can continue to squeak by in a more competitive NL Central.
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