The Houston Astros are running it back with Justin Verlander. The Astros traded for Justin Verlander from the New York Mets with around three hours left until the 2023 MLB trade deadline. Outfield prospects OF Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford are headed to the Mets in the deal. Considering the major-league and minor-league talent involved, the Astros-Mets trade is probably the biggest deal of the year.
The idea that the Mets might trade Verlander ahead of the 2023 trade deadline seemed unthinkable just a few short months ago. That all changed when it became clear that New York wasn't good enough to contend for the World Series. After the Mets traded Max Scherzer to the Texas Rangers, a Verlander trade looked like it might be on the horizon. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves were linked to Verlander before the Astros pulled a trigger on the deal.
Verlander has reminded the league why he won the 2022 AL Cy Young award. The 40-year-old pitched a 1.69 ERA in six July starts. Now that he's rejoined Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier in Houston's rotation, only the Tampa Bay Rays have better odds to win the 2023 AL pennant.
Let's grade the Verlander trade from both an Astros and Mets perspective.
Mets' Justin Verlander trade grade
In a vacuum, the Mets made out well in agreeing to send Verlander back to the Astros. New York took on a potentially awful contract and turned him into two valuable prospects. Verlander wasn't even on the team at the start of the last free agency period. All the Mets had to do was pay Verlander in order to acquire two of the Astros' top-four prospects.
Simply viewing the Verlander trade in that light would be extremely charitable to the Mets. New York gave Verlander a two-year, $86.67 million contract with a vesting option for a third year because it expected to compete for multiple championships. Mets owner Steve Cohen put together the most expensive collection of talent in American team sports history, luxury tax be damned. It only took a little more than a half-season for the Mets to pull the plug on the entire venture, admitting defeat.
Mets General Manager Billy Eppler told reporters on Sunday that the team wasn't holding a fire sale. If trading your closer and the two highest-paid pitchers in MLB history doesn't constitute a fire sale, then what exactly does?
The additions of Gilbert and Clifford have significantly bolstered the Mets' farm system. Neither player is projected to help the big-league club in this season or the next. The trade might appear to be a win for New York in a few years, but it's hard to view it in a positive light in 2023.
Mets Trade Grade: C-
Astros' Justin Verlander trade grade
If the Astros wanted Verlander on their team through the 2025 season, they could've just given him a new contract in free agency. Instead, Houston traded its No. 1 prospect (Gilbert) and No. 4 prospect (Clifford) to get the veteran back.
It isn't quite that simple, of course. The Mets will be sending the Astros plenty of money after New York outbid Houston with a historic contract offer in free agency. The Astros might only be on the hook for $29 million over the next two-plus seasons, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale. The Astros' need for starting pitching is more pressing than it was in the winter because of the season-ending injury to Lance McCullers and the Texas Rangers' emergence in the AL West. The Rangers' trades for Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery might've motivated the Astros to make a blockbuster move at the deadline.
There's no disguising the fact that the Astros let Verlander walk and arguably overpaid to get him back. Gilbert was the No. 28 pick in the first round of last year's MLB Draft. Gilbert is the No. 68 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB.com. Clifford was an 11th-round pick in the same draft, and ESPN's Jeff Passan reports that some evaluators believe him to be the best prospect in the trade. After hitting.337 and getting on base nearly half the time for Single-A Fayetteville, Clifford has mashed 16 home runs in just 58 games for High-A Asheville.
It's probably unfair to grade the trade from an Astros' perspective at the deadline. If Verlander helps Houston win the World Series this year or in 2024, the trade is an A+. If the Astros don't win another championship, this could be a deal that haunts Houston for years to come.
For now, it's close to an average trade for the Astros because of Verlander's potential impact and the price it took to re-acquire him.
Astros Trade Grade: C+
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