Jannik Sinner faces Holger Rune at the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Sinner-Rune prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Rune.

Jannik Sinner continues to advance at this Australian Open, moving into the fourth round as one of the top favorites in the men's tournament. He surely noticed, along with every other male tennis player in the locker room, that No. 4 seed Taylor Fritz got bounced out of the event by Gael Monfils. Sinner now has a clearer path back to the final one year after he won the 2024 championship in Melbourne. Sinner has to gain tunnel vision and not get too excited about the fact that another top-four seed has lost. He has to put his head down and take care of Holger Rune before he can control any other outcome in Australia.

Sinner was very sharp in his third-round win over Marcos Giron. It was the quick and clean routine win a top seed should produce at that stage of a major tournament. Sinner's efficient, straight-set victory did not keep him on court very long. He should have ample energy for the second week of this tournament, which should give him the best possible chance of being able to go all the way.

Sinner's opponent, Holger Rune, is not going to be fresher or more rested than his opponent. Rune won a marathon five-set match in the third round. He had to come back from a set and a break down to beat Miomir Kecmanovic. Rune was down two sets to one and 4-2 in the fourth set — not that far from defeat — when he was able to turn everything around by winning four straight games to take the fourth set. Rune battled into a fifth set and overtook Kecmanovic in a highly dramatic contest. The win is obviously fantastic, but Rune did not operate efficiently. He was on the court a long time. His body barked at him over the course of the extended match. Sinner is the fitter player, which means Rune has to win the first set of this match to gain a realistic chance of winning. It is highly unlikely Rune can mount a comeback from a set deficit under these circumstances. He has to win the first set and he then has to lead two sets to one — minimum — after three. He won't win this match fighting uphill on the scoreboard.

Here are the Sinner-Rune Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

Australian Open Odds: Sinner-Rune Odds

Game Spread:

Sinner -7.5 (-110)
Rune +7.5 (-122)

Moneyline:

Sinner -1400

Rune +740

To Win First Set:

Sinner -410

Rune +300

Total Games In Match:

Over 32.5 (-112)
Under 32.5 (-118)

Total Games Won:

Sinner over 19.5 (-104)
Sinner under 19.5 (-130)

Rune over 12.5 (-126)
Rune under 12.5 (-108)

How to Watch Australian Open

Time: TBA

TV: ESPN2, ESPN Plus

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Why Jannik Sinner Will Win

Jannik Sinner was so much better in the third round than he was in the second round. Making that clear-cut improvement should help him to stay locked in for this match. Holger Rune is exhausted and is unlikely to have the stamina needed to hang with Sinner in a best-of-five-set match. Sinner is likely to win at least one set 6-2, which is something that plays into the Italian covering the spread in this match.

Why Holger Rune Will Win 

Sinner will lose focus at times, such as in the second round when he dropped a set to a much lower-ranked opponent. If Rune can get one bad set from Sinner and then earn two other sets with his own positive play, he can whip up a recipe for an upset.

Final Sinner-Rune Prediction & Pick

We definitely think Sinner will win; it's a question of margin and length of match. Our lean is to a straight-set win, which would very likely mean Sinner does not need 20 games to win this match. Our official recommendation, though, is that you stay away from this match.

Final Sinner-Rune Prediction & Pick: Sinner under 19.5 games won