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Jannik Sinner takes on Tommy Paul. Our US Open odds series has our Sinner Paul prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Paul.
This is a fascinating fourth-round match at a fascinating U.S. Open men's tournament. For the first time since 2002 — 22 years — no member of the iconic Big Three in men's tennis will win a major championship. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Novak Djokovic won at least one major for 21 straight years, from 2003 through 2023. This year, Djokovic won the Olympics, but not any of the three tournaments called “majors.” He lost in the final at Wimbledon and came to New York hoping to get another big trophy. It didn't happen. He was knocked out in the third round, one day after Carlos Alcaraz — the pre-tournament favorite — was shocked in the second round.
No Alcaraz, no Djokovic, no Big Three. This is a wide-open tournament, making it a huge career opportunity for everyone who is left in the field. Many people will say that Jannik Sinner, as the top seed and one of the most consistent players on tour in 2024, is the favorite. However, he has been battling hip problems and had tonsilitis during the Olympics, which caused him to miss that event. He also didn't feel well on court in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, which he lost to Daniil Medvedev. Sinner's overall physical fitness is in question, and he has not been playing his best tennis at this tournament. He has started slowly in two of his three matches. He was down a set and a game in round one against Mackenzie McDonald before rallying.
Sinner is not an ironclad favorite. He could be viewed as the favorite, but if he is, he's the slight favorite over the field. He is not the dominant player Alcaraz and Djokovic have been in recent years, when it was clear they were the big dog and they proceeded to win the tournament. Sinner does not have that kind of status now.
If he wins this U.S. Open, that could change heading into 2025.
Here are the Jannik Sinner-Tommy Paul U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
U.S. Open Odds: Jannik Sinner-Tommy Paul
Game Spread:
Sinner -6.5: -130
Paul +6.5: -102
Moneyline:
Sinner -670
Paul +470
To Win First Set:
Sinner -310
Paul +240
Total Games In Match:
Over 34.5: -118
Under 34.5: -112
Total Games Won:
Sinner over 19.5: -122
Sinner under 19.5: -110
Paul over 14.5: -118
Paul under 14.5: -112
How to Watch U.S. Open
Time: approx. 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT — could be 30 minutes earlier or later depending on length of previous match
TV: ESPN2/ESPN/ESPN Plus
Stream: (Free Trial)
Why Jannik Sinner Will Win
Sinner's major-tournament experience, having won the Australian Open and having reached the French Open semifinals and Wimbledon quarterfinals this year, could enable him to relax and play the kind of tennis he is capable of playing. If Sinner does settle down and his body doesn't bark too much at him, he can take the fight to Tommy Paul and win convincingly.
Why Tommy Paul Will Win
Sinner's body is not a fortress of total strength. Sinner has displayed physical frailty on multiple occasions, despite having a mentally tough mindset which has improved under the direction of coach Darren Cahill and the rest of his team. If Paul can make this a physical match, Sinner might buckle. At the very least, the scoreline will be close enough for Paul to cover.
Final Jannik Sinner-Tommy Paul Prediction & Pick
We think Paul will win at least one set. Therefore, Paul plus the spread is a good play, as are the “overs” on various totals — for total games, for both players individually, and so on. Paul and over total games are both plays we're going to go with.
Final Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Pick: Paul +6.5 games, over 34.5 total games
