Jessica Pegula faces Aryna Sabalenka for the U.S. Open championship. Our U.S. Open final odds series has our Pegula Sabalenka prediction, odds, and pick. Find out how to watch Pegula Sabalenka.

Jessica Pegula won the Canada 1,000-point tournament a month ago. Aryna Sabalenka beat Pegula in the Cincinnati 1,000-point tournament final one week after Canada. Now the two meet in the U.S. Open final. The great thing about this championship match is that it involves the two players who have obviously been the best in the North American summer hardcourt swing from early August until now. There's something clean and neat and satisfying about this clash. It's not Evert versus Navratilova or Graf versus Seles or Serena versus Venus, but it's a clash between the two hottest players on tour, both at their best, in a major final. Sit back and enjoy, and follow our betting analysis below:

Here are the Pegula-Sabalenka U.S. Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

U.S. Open Final Odds: Jessica Pegula-Aryna Sabalenka

Game Spread:

Pegula +4.5: -124
Sabalenka -4.5: -108

Moneyline:

Pegula +245

Sabalenka -310

To Win First Set:

Pegula +196

Sabalenka -245

Total Games In Match:

Over 21.5: -110
Under 21.5: -122

Total Games Won:

Pegula over 9.5: -122
Pegula under 9.5: -110

Sabalenka over 12.5: -110
Sabalenka under 12.5: -122

How to Watch U.S. Open

Time: 4:20 p.m. ET/1:20 p.m. PT

TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus

Stream: (Free Trial)

Why Jessica Pegula Will Win

Let's talk tennis betting odds for a moment. Emma Navarro covered the 4.5-game spread against Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals. She did it in an unusual and improbable way: She got blasted in the first set, 6-3, but was then able to get the second set to a tiebreaker. If Navarro had not forced a tiebreaker and had lost the second set by any other margin (in other words, if she lost the set by more than one game, 7-6), she would not have covered the spread.

In the Cincinnati final, Pegula lost the first set in routine fashion, 6-3, but then lost the second set 7-5, almost forcing a tiebreaker but ultimately losing by five games. Oddsmakers have unsurprisingly set the spread for this U.S. Open final at 4.5 games.

Pegula, by having played Sabalenka recently, should know what to expect. She can reasonably improve upon her Cincinnati showing. As long as she improves by one game — that's it, nothing more — she will cover the spread.

You will also note that a lot of the odds and props which applied to Navarro-Sabalenka in the semifinals (9.5 total games won for the underdog, 21.5 total match games played) also apply here, with Pegula's odds being shaded in her favor, more than was the case for Navarro. The markets reflect a lean toward Pegula covering the spread and her totals. If you place any stock in that, it's more reason to pick Pegula.

Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win 

Sabalenka won the first set of the U.S. Open final last year against Coco Gauff, before then struggling and losing in three sets. She certainly remembers that match and wants to finally win the U.S. Open this Saturday. Sabalenka will be motivated. Given how sharp she looked in the first set versus Navarro in the semifinals, it's a good bet that Sabalenka — who beat Pegula 6-3 in the first set of the Cincinnati final a few weeks ago — will win the first set. If she can get stronger in the second set, she is likely to cover the spread. A 6-4, 6-3 scoreline for Sabalenka means that Sabalenka covers the 4.5-game spread by one. Having previously played in a U.S. Open final should really help her here. This is Pegula's first major final of any kind. That could matter.

Final Jessica Pegula-Aryna Sabalenka Prediction & Pick

We try to be disciplined in recommending whether you should even bet on a tennis match or not (and the same goes for any sporting event we cover here at ClutchPoints betting). Our semifinal preview of Navarro-Sabalenka told you that the outcome would likely fall very close to the various listed totals, and we were correct. We therefore told you not to bet on that match. We're going to do the same thing here, even though our lean is to Pegula. It's just not a good match to bet on.

Final Jessica Pegula-Aryna Sabalenka Prediction & Pick: Pegula +4.5 games