The Kansas City Chiefs will look to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions in 20 years. We are here to share our NFL odds series and make a Chiefs over-under win total prediction and pick for the 2023 season.

The Chiefs went 14-3 in 2022 and won the Super Bowl. Now, they hope to run it back. The Chiefs started their season 2-0. However, they suffered a hiccup loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3. They also suffered a loss at Arrowhead Stadium to the Buffalo Bills a few weeks later. Significantly, their only other loss was against the Cincinnati Bengals. But the Chiefs took care of business against the rest of the league. Ultimately, they won some nailbiters against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Las Vegas Raiders, the Tennessee Titans, and the Houston Texans, and twice against the Denver Broncos.

The Chiefs defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 in the divisional round. Then, they edged out the Bengals 23-20 in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs finished things off with a 38-35 Super Bowl victory against the Philadelphia Eagles.

The only significant addition the Chiefs made was their signing of tackle Jawaan Taylor to a four-year, $80 million contract. Conversely, they lost wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. The Chiefs also lost offensive tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie. Likewise, they lost safety Juan Thornhill. Now, the Chiefs will have to find a new group to replace these losses.

Here are the NFL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NFL Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 11.5 wins: -134

Under 11.5 wins: +110

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Why Kansas City Can Win 11.5 Games 

When you have Patrick Mahomes, you always have a chance. Thus, the elite quarterback helped guide the Chiefs to their second Super Bowl in four years. He has vaulted himself into the debate for best quarterbacks of all time. Now, he will attempt to become the first quarterback to lead his team to back-to-back Super Bowl titles since Tom Brady did it in 2004. Mahomes had another amazing season, passing for 5,250 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Likewise, he also rushed 61 times for 358 yards and four scores.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was supposed to be the top running back. Instead, Isiah Pacheco became the man in Kansas City, rushing 170 times for 830 yards and five scores. Pacheco showed that the Chiefs can trust him to move the chains. Now, the Chiefs expect more.

Travis Kelce produced another brilliant season, catching the ball 110 times for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. Somehow, he keeps getting better despite getting older. Kelce will remain the top option in this offense. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only remaining receiver left from last year's team. Valdes-Scantling had 42 receptions for 687 yards and two scores in 2022. However, running back Jerrick McKinnon became another excellent option in the backfield. McKinnon had 56 catches for 512 yards and nine touchdowns.

The offensive line retains three of their best linemen. Therefore, the Chiefs welcome back Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith, who combined for only three sacks allowed. Humphrey did not allow a single sack.

The defense lost a few pieces. However, defensive lineman George Karlaftis and linebacker Chris Jones return. Karlaftis had 8.5 sacks in 2022, while Jones had 15.5. Expect these two to continue to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.

The Chiefs will win 12 games because Mahomes is a top-3 quarterback and they still have Kelce, Pacheco, and McKinnon. Likewise, Jones, and Karlaftis are elite defensive playmakers that will keep the Chiefs ahead.

Why Kansas City Can Not Win 11.5 Games

There is one concern in Kansas City that might prevent them from repeating. Significantly, they lost some depth, and that might pose a problem. They lost two significant receivers. Therefore, they must find a way to replace them. They also lost a key player in their secondary. Therefore, there might be a regression in the defensive backfield.

The Chiefs also have a tougher schedule since they are the champs. First, they will play the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2 on the road. They also play the New York Jets at the Meadowlands in Week 4 against new quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs also head to Minnesota the following week to play the Vikings. Furthermore, the Chiefs will also have battles with the Miami Dolphins, the Eagles, the Buffalo Bills, and the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Chiefs will not win 12 games because they lost some key pieces. Additionally, the schedule is tougher.

Final Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

The Chiefs will always be elite as long as Mahomes is healthy. Therefore, expect another excellent season from the Chiefs.

Final Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 11.5 wins: -134